社零数据点评：1-2月社零+2.8%，消费开年温和复苏

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The retail sales of consumer goods in January-February 2026 increased by 2.8% year-on-year, slightly above the consensus expectation of 2.7% [1] - The real estate sector showed significant declines in new construction, completion, sales area, and development investment, with year-on-year decreases of 23.3%, 26.9%, 15.9%, and 10.7% respectively [1][2] - The furniture and cultural office supplies sectors experienced growth rates of 8.8% and 5.8% respectively, indicating a structural recovery in the home goods market [2] - The cosmetics sector saw retail sales of 75.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, although February faced temporary pressure due to logistics delays and decreased consumer demand [3][6] - The gold and jewelry retail sector reported a retail sales increase of 13.0% year-on-year, supported by rising gold prices and a recovering economy [6] Summary by Category Home Goods - The real estate market is stabilizing, with expectations of recovery supported by ongoing policies and macroeconomic stability [2] - The home goods market is benefiting from trade-in subsidies, activating consumer demand [2] - Key companies to watch include Oppein Home and Mousse, which have strong channel capabilities and product innovation [7] Cosmetics - The cosmetics market is expected to recover, driven by consumer upgrade trends and the upcoming 618 shopping festival [3] - Brands with strong cultural characteristics and clear improvement trends are recommended, such as Maogeping and Lin Qingxuan [7] Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector is expected to maintain resilience, particularly among high-end and youth-oriented brands [6] - Companies with strong brand premiums and differentiated pricing models, such as Laopu Gold, are highlighted for investment [7]