【冠通期货研究报告】沥青日报：低开后震荡运行-20260317

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The asphalt price is expected to be strong and volatile following the crude oil price in the near future due to improved supply - demand, significant cost support, and concerns over the Middle East situation. Traders should participate with caution and monitor the progress of the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% week - on - week, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In March 2026, domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 218.7 million tons, a 13.0% increase from February but a 1.9% decrease from the same period last year [1] - After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, with most of the asphalt downstream industries' operating rates rising. The road asphalt operating rate increased 1 percentage point to 9% week - on - week but was still lower than the end - of - January level [1] - Last week, refineries in Shandong resumed stable production, and downstream stocking enthusiasm increased after the price rise. The national asphalt shipment volume increased 12.67% week - on - week to 17.61 million tons but remained at a low level [1] - The asphalt plant inventory rate remained flat week - on - week, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate was at the lowest level in recent years. The asphalt price in Shandong followed the increase, but the basis was at a low level [1] - China's import of Venezuelan crude oil is expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention. With the US - Israel attack on Iran, Middle East raw material supply will be affected, and there are concerns about a shortage of domestic refinery raw materials in March [1] - China imports little asphalt from Iran. Imports from the UAE and Iraq account for half of the total asphalt imports, but only about 6% of China's asphalt production [1] - Dongming Petrochemical will resume production this week, slightly increasing the asphalt operating rate. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand will gradually recover, and the asphalt supply - demand situation will improve, with significant cost support [1] Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures 2606 contract rose 1.73% to 4,409 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 4,285 yuan/ton, and the highest was 4,508 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 5,616 to 252,993 lots [2] - The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 4,090 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 06 contract fell to - 319 yuan/ton, at a low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, Ningbo Keyuan and Xinjiang Fakangni stopped asphalt production, causing the asphalt operating rate to drop 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% week - on - week, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year [4] - From January to February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 0.6%, an improvement from - 6.0% in the same period in 2025 but still showing negative year - on - year growth [4] - From January to February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 11.4%, a significant increase from - 2.2% in the same period in 2025 [4] - As of the week of March 13, after the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, with most of the asphalt downstream industries' operating rates rising. The road asphalt operating rate increased 1 percentage point to 9% week - on - week but was still lower than the end - of - January level [4] - As of the week of March 13, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat at 17.7% compared to the week of March 6, at the lowest level in recent years [4]