【冠通期货研究报告】PP日报：PP低开后震荡运行-20260317

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PP prices are likely to rise rather than fall in the near term, with attention paid to the progress of downstream resumption after the holiday and the situation in the Middle East [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending March 13, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 45.71% week-on-week. After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream demand recovered slowly due to low acceptance of high-priced raw materials, but the operating rate of the main downstream plastics of drawstring continued to rise by 2.88 percentage points to 40.54% [1] - On March 17, there were few changes in the shutdown devices, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 77.5%, at a relatively low level. The production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 23% [1][4] - After the Spring Festival holiday, petrochemical inventories continued to decline, and currently petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1] - Although the IEA announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery speed was slow. Coupled with the attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's threat to continue blocking the strait, crude oil prices continued to rebound [1] - After the Lantern Festival, downstream rigid demand was concentrated, and the price of downstream BOPP film increased. The domestic supply-demand pattern of PP has improved, and there are still expectations for the anti-involution of the chemical industry. The situation in the Middle East has boosted the energy and chemical industry [1] - PP does not rely on imports from the Middle East, but its upstream depends on liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil from the Middle East. The PP production capacity in the Middle East accounts for 9% of the world's total and about 25% of the world's polyolefin exports, which affects international prices and supplies [1] - The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the reduction of domestic and foreign olefin plants. The supply of domestic PP standard products is tight, and downstream customers are resistant to high prices, resulting in weak spot transactions [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract opened lower and then oscillated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 8,460 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8,768 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 8,671 yuan/ton, above the 20-day moving average, with a decline of 1.47%. The trading volume decreased by 42,481 lots to 923,271 lots [2] - Spot: The spot prices of PP in most regions declined. The drawstring was reported at 8,170 - 8,880 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 17, there were few changes in the shutdown devices, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 77.5%, at a relatively low level. The production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 23% [4] - Demand: As of the week ending March 13, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 45.71% week-on-week. After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream demand recovered slowly due to low acceptance of high-priced raw materials, but the operating rate of the main downstream plastics of drawstring continued to rise by 2.88 percentage points to 40.54% [4] - Petrochemical inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early inventory increased by 0.5 tons to 86.5 tons week-on-week, 2 tons higher than the same period last lunar year. Currently, petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw material: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose above $103 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $40 per ton to $1,140 per ton week-on-week [4]