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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran remains unresolved, and the Strait of Hormuz shows signs of partial opening, but its sustainability is uncertain. The supply crunch of domestic chemical raw materials continues, and the short - term energy and chemical sector is strong. Attention should be paid to the Trump administration's next move in the conflict [2]. - The short - term supply crisis strongly supports the crude oil market, and the core of the game is the progress of the US - Israel - Iran conflict [3]. - The supply contraction of pure benzene and styrene is expected to be realized, providing short - term strong support, and the sustainability depends on the conflict progress [6][8]. - Natural rubber is supported by the strength of synthetic rubber, and the supply - demand contradiction of natural rubber itself is not significant [11]. - Due to the reduction of raw materials, domestic petrochemical plants have reduced production, and the price of synthetic rubber is easy to rise and difficult to fall [15]. - The supply of PX and PTA is tightened, and they are short - term strong [19][22]. - The supply of PP and PE is tightened, and they are short - term strong [26]. - The import of methanol is expected to decrease significantly if the conflict does not end by the end of March, and it is currently supported by emotional factors [28]. - The supply of ethylene glycol is contracted, and it is short - term bullish [32]. - The price of plastics is driven by cost and the expectation of Asian refinery production reduction, and the end of the event and the reopening of the strait mean the peak of the market [34]. - The price of soda ash is driven by cost and chemical sentiment in the short term, but the long - term over - supply restricts the upside space [39]. - The supply of PVC is disturbed by geopolitical factors, and it is short - term easy to rise and difficult to fall [40][42]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Crude Oil - Logic: The US - Israel - Iran conflict has not improved, the Strait of Hormuz is mostly closed, and the oil production of Middle - Eastern Gulf countries has decreased by at least 10 million barrels per day, about 9% of the global supply. The short - term supply crisis strongly supports the crude oil market. The core of the game is the progress of the conflict [3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of crude oil are in an upward trend. It fluctuates widely today, with short - term support at 610. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [3]. (2) Styrene - Logic: The production of Asian petroleum benzene decreased significantly last week. The domestic pure benzene start - up rate dropped from 79% to 74%, and the styrene start - up rate dropped by 2.3% to 71.79%. The supply contraction provides short - term strong support, and the sustainability depends on the conflict progress [6]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of styrene is in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 9000. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [6]. (3) Pure Benzene - Logic: Similar to styrene, the supply contraction provides short - term strong support, and the sustainability depends on the conflict progress [8]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of pure benzene is in a downward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 7170. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [8]. (4) Rubber - Logic: Natural rubber is supported by the strength of synthetic rubber. The supply - demand contradiction of natural rubber itself is not significant, and the tapping enthusiasm needs to be verified after the tapping season [11]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of rubber are in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 16250. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [11]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The US - Israel - Iran conflict is deadlocked. Due to the reduction of raw materials, domestic petrochemical plants have reduced production, and the price of synthetic rubber is easy to rise and difficult to fall [15]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of synthetic rubber are in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 14300. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [15]. (6) PX - Logic: The supply of naphtha raw materials affects the supply of PX and PTA. The start - up rate of PX dropped from 93.2% to 89.2%, and the start - up rate of PTA dropped to 80%. The supply is tightened, and PX is short - term strong [19]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of PX are in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 9750. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [19]. (7) PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the supply is tightened, and PTA is short - term strong [22]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of PTA are in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 6720. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [22]. (8) PP - Logic: The start - up rate of polyolefins has been declining. The start - up rate of PP dropped from 75% to 70%, and the start - up rate of PE dropped from 88% to 82%. The supply is tightened, and PP is short - term strong [26]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PP is in an upward trend. It falls with reduced positions today, with short - term support at 8250. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [26]. (9) Methanol - Logic: The expectation of reduced methanol imports from the Middle East is still fermenting. If the conflict does not end by the end of March, there will be a significant reduction in imports. Currently, it is supported by emotional factors [28]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term structure of methanol is in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 2500. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see, and put options of 05P2400 can be gradually arranged (the premium does not exceed 3% of the total funds) [30]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The start - up rate of ethylene glycol dropped to 66.7%, a 7.2% month - on - month decrease. The inventory is in a destocking pattern, and the supply is contracted, so it is short - term bullish [32]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of ethylene glycol is in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 4600. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [32]. (11) Plastic - Logic: It follows the cost - end drive of crude oil and the expectation of Asian refinery production reduction. The end of the event and the reopening of the strait mean the peak of the market [34]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure of plastic is in an upward trend. It falls with reduced positions today, with short - term support at 8150. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [34]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: Driven by the cost increase expectation and chemical sentiment, the soda ash market strengthened in the previous two weeks. However, the over - supply restricts the upside space, and it is easy to fall and difficult to rise in the medium term [39]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of soda ash is in an upward trend. It falls with increased positions today, with short - term support at 1215. The hourly cycle strategy is to hold short positions, and the take - profit reference is 1280 [39]. (13) PVC - Logic: Although the real - estate demand is still weak, the domestic ethylene - based plants and overseas chlor - alkali plants have reduced production due to geopolitical factors, and the supply is disturbed, so it is short - term easy to rise and difficult to fall [40][42]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of PVC are in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 5530. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [42].