Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-03-17 12:47Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For alumina, the fundamentals are in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. Suggest light - position oscillating trading and control trading rhythm and risks [2]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the fundamentals are in a stage of stable supply and slightly warming demand. Suggest light - position short - term long trading on dips and control trading rhythm and risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals are in a stage of rising supply and flat demand. Suggest light - position short - term long trading on dips and control trading rhythm and risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,990 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,073 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan [2]. - The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 3,392 dollars/ton, down 47 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 442,825 tons, down 2,475 tons [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 23,725 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 25,100 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot is 24,900 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 1,375 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 90 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 801.08 million tons per month, down 12.72 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 million tons per month, up 25.33 million tons [2]. - The import volume of aluminum scrap and waste is 194,102.07 tons per month, up 31,482.14 tons; the export volume of aluminum scrap and waste is 70.80 tons per month, down 0.73 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 20.49 million tons per month, up 31.36 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 129.50 million tons per week, up 3.38 million tons [2]. - The output of aluminum products is 613.56 million tons per month, up 20.46 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 42.96 million tons per month, down 11.04 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 27.08 million tons per month, down 39.41 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.55 million tons per month, down 0.51 million tons [2]. - The automobile production is 341.15 million vehicles per month, down 10.75 million vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 22.00%, up 0.22%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 31.36%, down 0.10% [2]. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money option is 24.62%, up 0.0090; the put - call ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.65, up 0.0254 [2]. Industry News - Academician Ouyang Minggao said that 2026 will start a new round of high - quality development cycle led by innovation, and there will be seven technological development directions in the new energy vehicle industry in the next five years [2]. - China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Paris, forming some new consensuses and agreeing to study the establishment of a cooperation mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment [2]. - Premier Li Qiang presided over the 11th plenary meeting of the State Council, deploying the implementation of the key work of the State Council in 2026 [2].