【冠通期货研究报告】沪铜日报：宏观压制铜价，基本面支撑乏力-20260317

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on Shanghai copper futures, released on March 17, 2026, by Guantong Futures [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - Macro factors are suppressing copper prices, while fundamental support is weak. The copper market remains bearish in the short - term, with its financial attributes playing a dominant role [1] Group 4: Market Conditions Analysis Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened low and moved lower, declining during the day [1][4] - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 100 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 25 yuan/ton. On March 16, 2026, the LME official price was 12,840 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 80.5 US dollars/ton [4] Supply - side - In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year - on - year increase of 6.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.0%. The domestic copper concentrate inventory is at a relatively low level compared to previous years. Overseas copper resources are tight, and shipping is difficult due to the war, which supports copper prices. The refined - scrap copper price difference in mainstream areas has declined. The electrolytic copper production in March increased by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year [1] - As of March 16, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 60.12 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 6.10 US cents/pound [8] Demand - side - After entering the "Golden March and Silver April", the copper products sector has seen an increase in production starts. In February, the operating rate of the copper cable industry was 55.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 14.29 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 9.06 percentage points. However, the terminal data shows no optimistic performance, and the terminal's feedback on copper prices is weak. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% [1] Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 324,300 tons, an increase of 1,291 tons from the previous period. As of March 16, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 83,900 tons, a decrease of 0.63 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 311,600 tons, with a change of + - 225 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 589,800 short tons, a decrease of 598 short tons from the previous period [11]