尿素日报：回归基本面-20260317

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The market cooled down today, but the futures price is still at a premium to the spot price. The market has a strong awareness of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. Although the chemical sector is frequently stimulated by the Middle - East situation, the sentiment of urea is relatively stable, and the futures price is mainly based on the return to fundamentals and tends to be stable after a correction [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The futures price of urea opened lower and moved lower today, with an intraday decline of nearly 2%. By the end of the month, national reserve urea will be fully released, and the market supply is abundant. Although the number of temporary shutdowns and overhauls of upstream factories has increased in the past two days, the impact is relatively weak. Downstream demand comes from both agriculture and industry. The terminal sales of compound fertilizers are smooth. Although the operating rate is gradually rising, the finished - product inventory is still being depleted. The wheat top - dressing in the agricultural demand is basically over, but subsequent crops such as spring corn still require a large amount of high - nitrogen compound fertilizers. Although the rising raw material prices have squeezed the factory profits, the high demand still corresponds to high supply. After the sharp jump in urea prices, downstream buyers follow the "buy - on - rising" mentality, and the terminal sales are smooth. The inventory of upstream factories has been continuously depleted. Driven by downstream demand digestion and previous exports, the inventory shows a relatively loose situation compared with last year, without obvious inventory accumulation pressure, which is an important reason to support the strong market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1897 yuan/ton, opened lower and moved lower, with an intraday decline of nearly 2%, and finally closed at 1878 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.73%. The trading volume was 244,735 lots (-4,869 lots). Among the top 20 main positions in the main contract, long positions decreased by 2,584 lots, and short positions decreased by 4,218 lots. Huishang Futures had a net long position of +836 lots, Huatai Futures had a net long position of +676 lots; Galaxy Futures had a net short position of +2,276 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of -2,234 lots [2] - Spot: The current spot price still follows the maximum execution price. The ex - factory price range of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong and Henan is 1,810 - 1,840 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot price in the market declined today, and the futures closing price also declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day. The basis of the May contract was -22 yuan/ton (+8 yuan/ton) [7] - Supply Data: According to Feiyitong data, on March 17, 2026, the daily national urea output was 218,800 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons from yesterday, and the operating rate was 87.7% [8] Other Data - On March 17, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,055, the same as the previous trading day [3]