滴滴出行：2025Q4业绩点评：国内单均价转正，海外竞争亏损扩大

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Didi Chuxing (DIDIY.OO) [1] Core Insights - Domestic average order price has turned positive and maintains stable growth, while overseas competition has intensified, leading to a significant increase in losses [2] - The company's performance in Q4 2025 met expectations, with revenue of 58.445 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and an adjusted EBITA of -2.115 billion RMB [8] - The report forecasts adjusted EBITA for 2026, 2027, and 2028 to be 6.37 billion, 7.706 billion, and 14.425 billion RMB respectively, with the Chinese business contributing 15.139 billion, 17.908 billion, and 20.925 billion RMB [8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections (in million RMB): - 2024A: 206,799 - 2025A: 226,701 - 2026E: 252,621 - 2027E: 274,987 - 2028E: 301,633 - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are expected to be 7%, 10%, 11%, 9%, and 10% respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be: - 2024A: 1,258 - 2025A: 992 - 2026E: -1,410 - 2027E: 5,337 - 2028E: 11,831 [4] Operational Performance - The average daily order volume reached 52.65 million, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, with the Chinese business achieving a daily order volume of 38.89 million, up 10% [8] - The take rate for the platform reached 23.9%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, driving revenue growth [8] - The EBITA margin for the Chinese ride-hailing business was 3.0%, continuing to decline from Q3 2025 due to increased marketing expenditures [8] International Business Insights - The international business saw a GTV increase of 47.1% year-on-year, with transaction volume growing by 24.5% [8] - However, the international segment reported a record loss of 34.43 billion RMB, with an EBITA/GTV ratio of -9.4%, the worst since Q1 2019 [8] - The report anticipates continued investment in the Brazilian market, with expectations for improved unit economics as order volumes increase [8]