Orient Securities·2026-03-17 14:44Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The price of butadiene is at a historical high, with expectations of tight supply due to maintenance and a reduction in production. It is anticipated that butadiene will remain high-priced and in short supply [3][8] - Companies with stable butadiene production capabilities are expected to benefit, as well as those involved in alternative production pathways for nylon 66 [3][8] Summary by Relevant Sections - Butadiene Price Trends: As of March 13, 2026, the spot price of butadiene in China is 15,400 CNY/ton and 2,050 USD/ton, with weekly increases of 21.26% and 36.67%, monthly increases of 50.98% and 61.42%, and quarterly increases of 110.96% and 135.63%. The price percentiles are at 94.90% and 96.40%, indicating a historically high level [8] - Supply Expectations: The butadiene operating rate has significantly decreased, with a weekly operating rate of 75.93% as of March 13, 2026, down 5.74 percentage points from the previous week. Maintenance of sporadic production units and potential production cuts due to raw material cost pressures are contributing to a tightening supply outlook [8] - Beneficiaries of Price Increases: Companies with stable butadiene production, such as Qixiang Tengda, which has an annual production capacity of 150,000 tons of butadiene, are expected to benefit directly from price increases. Additionally, the alternative production pathway for nylon 66, which can bypass traditional methods, is also expected to gain from the high butadiene prices [8]