行业点评报告：白酒底部逐步夯实，重视龙头配置价值

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The macroeconomic data for January-February 2026 exceeded expectations, with industrial value-added increasing by 6.3% year-on-year, fixed asset investment rising by 1.8%, and retail sales of consumer goods growing by 2.8%. Notably, the consumption of tobacco and alcohol saw a significant increase of 19% year-on-year [5] - The Chinese liquor market is showing signs of stabilization, particularly for leading brands like Moutai and Fenjiu, which are expected to demonstrate resilient growth. The first-tier brands are benefiting from price stability and increased sales volume, while second-tier brands are seeing a reduction in decline [6][7] - The liquor industry is at the bottom of its cycle, with demand gradually improving despite a decline in overall consumption structure. The recovery of business demand and the reduction of channel inventory are contributing to this stabilization [7] - The current low expectations and valuations in the liquor sector present a favorable opportunity for investment, particularly in leading brands. The market sentiment has been pessimistic, but the demand for top brands is showing signs of support, indicating a potential bottoming out of the industry [8] Summary by Sections Economic Data - January-February 2026 economic data shows better-than-expected performance, with industrial value-added at 6.3%, fixed asset investment at 1.8%, and retail sales at 2.8%. Tobacco and alcohol consumption increased by 19% [5] Liquor Market Analysis - The liquor market is stabilizing, with first-tier brands like Moutai and Fenjiu expected to show resilient growth. The sales performance during the Spring Festival exceeded market expectations due to price reductions and increased brand concentration [6] - The liquor industry's cycle is at a bottom, with improving demand and reduced supply. Business demand is recovering, and channel inventory is being actively reduced [7] - The current low expectations and valuations in the liquor sector suggest a good investment opportunity, particularly for leading brands, as the market sentiment has been overly pessimistic [8]