全球大类资产配置与A股相对收益：历史油价上行阶段的大类资产表现

• The report does not include any quantitative models or factor construction details related to financial engineering or quantitative analysis [1][3][4] - The content primarily focuses on analyzing the impact of historical oil price shocks on asset pricing and macroeconomic variables, as well as the implications for asset allocation under different policy responses [4][7][22] - The report identifies four market reaction phases to oil price shocks: panic trading, reversal trading, stagflation expectation trading, and reality trading, emphasizing that the key determinant of asset performance is whether high oil prices persist and influence inflation and policy constraints [14][17][36] - Historical examples of oil price shocks, such as the 1973 oil crisis, 1978 oil crisis, and 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, are analyzed to understand their impact on inflation, policy, and asset performance, with a focus on distinguishing stagflationary scenarios from non-stagflationary ones [10][22][31] - The report highlights that in stagflationary environments, defensive and upstream sectors like energy, utilities, and healthcare tend to outperform, while growth and liquidity-sensitive sectors such as real estate, technology, and industrials face pressure [23][26][29] - Non-stagflationary oil price shocks, characterized by limited transmission to inflation and policy, show less systemic impact on equity markets, with recovery patterns varying across regions and styles [28][31][36] - The report concludes that the persistence of high oil prices and their transmission to inflation and policy are critical variables to monitor, alongside the starting valuation levels of equity markets, which influence their sensitivity to stagflationary pressures [34][35][36]