全球股市立体投资策略周报3月第3期：地缘扰动支撑能源表现，AI基建热潮助推电力突围-20260317

Market Performance - Risk assets continued to decline last week, with MSCI Global down by 1.5%, MSCI Developed Markets down by 1.5%, and MSCI Emerging Markets down by 1.4% [8] - In the developed markets, the UK FTSE 100 showed the strongest performance at -0.2%, while the Nikkei 225 was the weakest at -3.2% [8] - In the emerging markets, the ChiNext Index performed best at +2.5%, while the Indian Sensex 30 was the worst at -5.5% [8] Trading Sentiment - Under the shadow of geopolitical tensions, the sentiment in the US stock market weakened, reaching historically low levels [18] - Trading volumes decreased across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index trading at 3.706 billion shares and $7.770 billion, and the Hang Seng Index at 178 million shares and $739 million [18] - The short-selling ratio in the Hong Kong market decreased to 17.5%, indicating a historical low in investor sentiment [18] Fundamental Analysis - The earnings forecast for the Hong Kong market was revised downwards, with the Hang Seng Index's 2026 EPS forecast adjusted from +9.5% to +8.6% [64] - In contrast, the earnings forecast for the US market remained stable at +12.9% for the S&P 500 Index, with the energy sector seeing the most significant upward revision of +5.5% [64] - The European market's earnings forecast remained unchanged at -3.0% for the Eurozone STOXX 50 Index, with the energy sector also experiencing a notable upward revision of +9.4% [65] Capital Flows - Expectations for overseas liquidity continued to tighten, with offshore dollar liquidity tightening [51] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will delay its first rate cut of the year, with expectations now at 0.9 cuts for 2026 [51] - In terms of capital flows, the Hong Kong market saw a net inflow of HKD 3.8 billion, primarily from flexible foreign capital [60]