2月信贷、社融数据延续平稳走势，资金面整体偏松，债市走势分化

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On March 13, the overall liquidity was loose, the bond market showed a divergent trend with short - term bonds performing well and medium - and long - term bonds being weak, the convertible bond market's major indices declined collectively, and most convertible bond issues fell. The yields of U.S. Treasury bonds of various maturities showed a divergent trend, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally increased [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Bond Market News (1) Domestic News - The article "Promote High - quality Development of the Marine Economy" by General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasizes the importance of high - efficiency development and utilization of the ocean, and puts forward five major ideas for promoting high - quality development of the marine economy [3] - In February 2026, new RMB loans were 900 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 110 billion yuan; new social financing scale was 2.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 146.9 billion yuan. At the end of February, M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 5.9% year - on - year, 1.0 percentage point faster than at the end of last month [4] - The Financial Regulatory Administration and the Central Bank jointly issued regulations requiring lenders to show borrowers a comprehensive financing cost statement for personal loans, aiming to make loan fees more transparent and protect consumers' rights [4][5] - The new regulations on information disclosure of public offering fund regular reports will be implemented on May 1, which guide the industry to focus on the concepts of "long - term investment" and "value investment" [6] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will strengthen the monitoring of the linkage between domestic and foreign, futures and spot markets, and promote the implementation of policies to serve new productive forces [7] (2) International News - In January, the U.S. core PCE price index increased by 3.1% year - on - year, reaching a two - year high; the overall PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year. The service price was the core driving force of inflation, and the actual consumer spending growth was weak [8] - In January, the initial value of the month - on - month change in U.S. durable goods orders was 0%, lower than the market expectation of 1.1%. The growth momentum of the manufacturing industry weakened [9] (3) Commodities - On March 13, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, while NYMEX natural gas futures prices fell. WTI April crude oil futures rose 3.11% to $98.71 per barrel, and Brent May crude oil futures rose 2.67% to $103.14 per barrel. COMEX April gold spot prices fell 1.13% to $5022.17 per ounce, and NYMEX April natural gas futures prices fell 3.57% to $3.132 per million British thermal units [10] II. Liquidity (1) Open Market Operations - On March 13, the central bank carried out 37.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%. The net withdrawal of funds on that day was 7.3 billion yuan [12] (2) Funding Rates - On March 13, the overall liquidity was loose. DR001 decreased by 0.58bp to 1.322%, and DR007 decreased by 0.88bp to 1.462%. Various funding rates generally declined [13][14] III. Bond Market Dynamics (1) Interest - rate Bonds - On March 13, the performance of major interest - rate bonds was divergent. Short - term bonds performed well, while medium - and long - term bonds were weak. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250022 increased by 1.15bp to 1.8225%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250220 increased by 0.90bp to 1.9780% [16] - The 26 Attached - interest Treasury Bond 01 (Continued 2) with a term of 1 year had an issue scale of 175 billion yuan, a winning bid yield of 1.1905%, a full - field multiple of 2.65, and a marginal multiple of 10.06; the 26 Attached - interest Treasury Bond 06 with a term of 2 years had an issue scale of 155 billion yuan and a full - field multiple of 3.14, and a marginal multiple of 5.08 [17] (2) Credit Bonds - On March 13, the trading price of one industrial bond, "H3 Vanke 01", deviated by more than 10%, rising more than 13% [17] - There were multiple credit bond events, including the cancellation of a bondholder meeting by Fujian Jiuxian Industrial Investment, the negative watch on the long - term issuer rating of United Energy Group by Fitch, the revocation of the insurance financial strength rating of Guoyuan Insurance by Moody's, the investigation of Shuangliang Group by the CSRC, the debt guarantee by Zhongyou Jinhong, and the planned asset transfer by Jingtou Development [20] (3) Convertible Bonds - On March 13, the three major A - share stock indices fell. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index fell 0.82%, 0.65%, and 0.22% respectively, with a full - day trading volume of 2.42 trillion yuan. Most Shenwan primary industries fell [19] - The major convertible bond market indices fell collectively. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index fell 1.04%, 1.10%, and 0.94% respectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 73.553 billion yuan, an increase of 10.12 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most convertible bond issues fell [21] - There were multiple convertible bond events, including the approval of Diwell's convertible bond issuance by the exchange, the impending triggering of the conversion price downward - revision clause for Jin 23 Convertible Bond, and the announcements of early redemption or non - early redemption for multiple convertible bonds [25] (4) Overseas Bond Markets - On March 13, the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds of various maturities showed a divergent trend. The yield of the 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond decreased by 3bp to 3.73%, and the yield of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond increased by 1bp to 4.28%. The yield spreads of 2/10 - year and 5/30 - year U.S. Treasury bonds widened. The break - even inflation rate of the 10 - year U.S. inflation - protected Treasury bond (TIPS) decreased by 2bp to 2.36% [24][26][27] - On March 13, the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally increased. The yield of the 10 - year German government bond increased by 4bp to 2.98%, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds of France, Italy, Spain, and the UK increased by 5bp, 6bp, 4bp, and 5bp respectively [28] - The daily price changes of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds showed that some bonds had price increases, while others had price decreases. For example, the bonds of Ideal Auto, CNOOC North America Unlimited Liability, etc. rose, while the bonds of China National Agrochemical (Hong Kong) Fengqiao Co., Ltd., Bilibili, etc. fell [30]