——政府债周报（03/15）：下周新增债披露发行1283亿-20260318

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly update on government bonds, including the issuance of local government bonds, special bonds, and the weighted - average issuance terms [1][6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - Actual and Pre - issuance Disclosure: From March 9th to March 15th, local bonds issued a total of 1355.45 billion yuan, including 371.30 billion yuan in new bonds and 984.15 billion yuan in refinancing bonds. From March 16th to March 22nd, local bonds are expected to issue 3422.34 billion yuan, including 1282.78 billion yuan in new bonds and 2139.57 billion yuan in refinancing bonds [1][6][7]. - Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance: In March 2026, the planned issuance of local bonds across the country is 8674 billion yuan, a decrease of 1143 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025. The actual disclosed issuance is 7503 billion yuan, with an expected repayment of 4191 billion yuan and a net financing of 4483 billion yuan [9]. 2. Local Bond Net Supply - New Bond Issuance Progress: As of March 15th, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 29.32%, and that of new special bonds is 20.91% [28]. - Refinancing Bond Net Supply: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of March 15th is presented in the relevant chart [33]. 3. Special Bond Issuance Details - Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics: As of March 15th, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds total 20000.00 billion yuan, and the fifth - round third - batch totals 7809.53 billion yuan, with an additional 973.17 billion yuan newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round third - batch disclosure are Jiangsu (811.59 billion yuan), Zhejiang (564.00 billion yuan), and Hunan (516.00 billion yuan) [8]. - Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics: As of March 15th, the total disclosed amount of special new special bonds in 2026 is 1098.72 billion yuan, and since 2023, it is 26726.28 billion yuan. The top three regions in the 2026 disclosure are Guangdong (151.00 billion yuan), Zhejiang (117.00 billion yuan), and Hunan (103.00 billion yuan) [8]. 4. Local Bond Investment and Trading - Primary - Secondary Spread: The primary and secondary spreads of local bonds are presented in the relevant charts, showing the changes from March 8th to March 15th, 2026 [42]. - Regional Secondary Spread: The regional secondary spreads of local bonds are presented in the relevant chart [43]. - New Special Bond Investment Direction: The monthly statistics of new special bond investment directions are presented in the relevant chart, with the latest month's statistics only considering issued new bonds [44].