渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.03.18）-20260318

Macro and Strategy Research - The economic data for January-February 2026 shows that the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 6.3% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 5.3% and the 2025 annual growth of 5.9% [4] - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.5% and the 2025 annual growth of 3.7% [4] - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, contrasting with the expected decline of 5.1% and the 2025 annual decline of 3.8% [4] Production and Consumption Insights - The production of large-scale industries continues to maintain a favorable trend, with significant support from external demand, particularly in specialized and electronic equipment sectors [5] - The service sector experienced a slight recovery in production growth due to the extended Spring Festival holiday, although overall consumption remains structurally divided [5] - Fixed asset investment rebounded significantly, with manufacturing investment growth rising to 3.1%, driven by high export growth and technological upgrades in certain industries [6] Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment showed a robust rebound, with significant positive growth in public utilities and transportation sectors, supported by fiscal policies and special bond issuance [6] - Real estate sales showed a decline in both area and value compared to the end of last year, with first-tier cities experiencing slight price increases, but overall investment remains weak [6] Fixed Income Research - The credit bond issuance saw a growth in scale, with a net financing increase, while corporate bonds faced zero issuance [9] - The yield on credit bonds displayed divergence, with short-term yields declining and long-term yields rising, indicating a mixed market sentiment [9] - The government work report emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to positively influence bond valuations as market signals of stabilization emerge [10] Industry Research - The steel industry is expected to see limited improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with prices likely to fluctuate in the short term [14] - Copper prices are influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and oil prices, with a focus on geopolitical developments affecting supply [14] - The aluminum market is primarily affected by geopolitical factors, with supply tightening expected to support prices [14] - The lithium market is experiencing mixed factors, with strong demand supporting prices while domestic supply recovery and macroeconomic fluctuations exert downward pressure [14] Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals industries, with specific companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Zhongjin Gold receiving "overweight" ratings [15]