中信期货研究（有?每?报告）：宏观预期偏负面，基本金属震荡承压

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The macroeconomic outlook is negative, and base metals are under pressure to fluctuate. The short - term high - oil - price environment leads to a negative macro outlook, and base metals are generally under pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong due to supply issues, and the medium - term focus is on the duration of the US - Iran war and oil price trends [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook Copper - View: The rebound of the US dollar index puts pressure on copper prices, which are expected to fluctuate. - Analysis: On March 17, the spot premium of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was - 115 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 180 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 60.02 dollars/dry ton, unchanged from the previous day. In February this year, the US CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 2.5% year - on - year. - Logic: The increase in energy prices and the rise of the US dollar index due to the Iran conflict put pressure on copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tight, and the smelting profit is falling, leading to an expected contraction in refined copper supply. As the demand peak season approaches, the inventory accumulation of refined copper slows down [5]. Alumina - View: The price of alumina strengthens in the short term and is expected to fluctuate widely. - Analysis: On March 17, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2733.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 31.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The alumina warehouse receipt was 405450 tons, an increase of 3611 tons compared to the previous day. - Logic: The macro - sentiment amplifies the market fluctuations. The operating capacity of alumina is relatively stable, and the supply - demand balance has improved but is still slightly in surplus. The Middle East issue affects the demand for alumina, but the cost is supported by rising freight and auxiliary material prices. The recent mine - end disturbances strengthen the price [6]. Aluminum - View: Geopolitical conflicts increase supply disturbances, and aluminum prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations. - Analysis: On March 16, the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 24784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 312 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The spot premium was - 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The inventory of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas was 134.5 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons compared to the previous day. - Logic: The US economic data shows a structural divide, and the Middle East geopolitical conflict is uncertain. The domestic production capacity is stable, and the smelting profit is high. The overseas supply is disturbed by the conflict, and the Indonesian supply is restricted. The demand is gradually picking up, and the inventory is still accumulating. In the short term, the price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and in the medium term, the price center may rise [7][8]. Aluminum Alloy - View: The social inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be strong with fluctuations. - Analysis: On March 16, the price of ADC12 was 24600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 24784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 312 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. - Logic: The cost of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply is tight. The supply may be restricted by policies. The demand is affected by high prices, and the inventory is decreasing. In the short term, the price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and in the medium term, the cost support is strengthened [9][10][13]. Zinc - View: The US - Iran war has not eased, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate downward. - Analysis: On March 17, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was - 85 yuan/ton, and the inventory of zinc ingots in six places was 23.62 million tons, an increase of 0.51 million tons compared to the previous day. - Logic: The US - Iran conflict and rising oil prices lead to concerns about economic slowdown and a weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The supply of zinc ore is increasing, and the domestic supply pressure is rising. The demand is in the peak season but the terminal orders are limited. In the short term, the price may fluctuate at a high level, and in the long term, there is a downward trend [11][12]. Lead - View: The cost support is stable, and lead prices stop falling and rebound, expected to fluctuate. - Analysis: On March 17, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9925 yuan/ton, and the price of 1 lead ingots was 16400 - 16500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16450 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The social inventory of lead ingots was 8.01 million tons, an increase of 0.24 million tons compared to the previous day. - Logic: The spot discount is expanding, and the profit of secondary lead smelting is improving, leading to an increase in production. The demand is in the traditional peak season, but the terminal demand is weak. The inventory may still accumulate, but the cost support is strong [13][14]. Nickel - View: Nickel prices fluctuate, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances. - Analysis: On March 17, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt was 57247 tons, a decrease of 60 tons compared to the previous day, and the LME nickel inventory was 283740 tons, a decrease of 174 tons compared to the previous day. - Logic: The supply of nickel has slightly decreased, but the inventory is still high. The Indonesian government's reduction of the 2026 nickel ore quota has adjusted the market's balance expectation. The price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [14][15]. Stainless Steel - View: The price of nickel iron is strong, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates. - Analysis: On March 17, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 53962 tons, an increase of 1188 tons compared to the previous day. - Logic: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the strong price of nickel iron. The production in February decreased due to the Spring Festival, but is expected to increase in March. The terminal demand is cautious. The price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [17][18]. Tin - View: The spot trading is dull, and tin prices fluctuate. - Analysis: On March 17, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 60 tons to 8715 tons, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 322 tons to 11673 tons. - Logic: The supply of tin is expected to increase as the Wa State restarts production and Indonesia raises its production target. The demand in the semiconductor and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing, but the short - term price is suppressed by the macro - sentiment and supply recovery expectation [18]. 2. Market Monitoring - Comprehensive Index: On March 17, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2591.86, a decrease of 0.61%; the commodity 20 index was 2926.66, a decrease of 0.58%; the industrial product index was 2565.21, a decrease of 0.51%. - Special Index - Non - ferrous Metal Index: On March 17, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index was 2699.75, with a daily increase of 0.42%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.77%, a 1 - month increase of 0.70%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.51% [144][146].