通胀扰动与避险需求交织，?价?位整理

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is in a high - level consolidation, with mid - term support still in place. The market is in a re - balance stage between "geopolitical risk - aversion support" and "high - interest rate expectation suppressing the upward slope". Physical and allocation demand still support precious metals [1][2] - Silver's follow - up rise rhythm has slowed down, and its volatility may still be relatively large. It is affected by both geopolitical risk - aversion and inflation expectations, but its financial attribute is weaker than that of gold, and its short - term performance is more disturbed by risk preference and interest rate expectations [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - Logic: Middle - East situation, energy infrastructure attacks and transportation blockage in the Strait of Hormuz provide risk - aversion premium and anti - inflation support for gold; rising oil prices increase inflation risk, and the market's expectation of the Fed's significant interest rate cut this year has further converged, and the high - interest rate environment restricts the short - term gold price; the market has shifted from simply trading the interest rate path to also trading growth slowdown, fiscal and monetary stimulus expectations and geopolitical uncertainties, and the mid - term allocation value of gold as a store - of - value asset is still prominent; post - holiday continuous increase of Chinese gold ETFs and the premium of Shanghai over the international market indicate that Asian allocation demand is still resilient, supporting the lower limit of the gold price [2] - Outlook: In the short term, gold may maintain a high - level shock pattern, and the market will continue to play games among risk - aversion, inflation and interest rate constraints. In the mid - term, if the energy shock continues and drags down growth expectations, gold is still expected to attract funds in the stagflation trading framework; if the oil supply risk is significantly alleviated and the US Treasury yield continues to rise, the upward momentum of the gold price may slow down temporarily [2] Silver - Logic: Silver is supported by geopolitical risk - aversion and inflation expectations as part of the precious metals sector, but its financial attribute is weaker than that of gold, and its short - term performance is more affected by risk preference and interest rate expectations; the market's expectation of the high - interest rate maintenance time has been revised upwards, suppressing the valuation of silver and temporarily converging its elasticity relative to gold; if the market's pricing of stagflation deepens, silver will benefit from the precious metals sentiment on the one hand and face the disturbance of weakening growth expectations on its industrial attribute on the other hand, so its volatility may continue to be greater than that of gold [3] - Outlook: In the short term, silver is likely to maintain a high - level shock, but the rhythm is more complex. If the precious metals allocation demand continues to spread, silver still has room for a supplementary rise; if the market further shifts to trading the co - existence of growth slowdown and high interest rates, the silver price volatility may continue to increase [3] Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index was 2591.86, down 0.61%; the commodity 20 index was 2926.66, down 0.58%; the industrial products index was 2565.21, down 0.51% [45] - Precious Metals Index: On March 17, 2026, the precious metals index was 4261.99, with a daily decline of 0.19%, a decline of 5.23% in the past 5 days, an increase of 1.47% in the past month, and an increase of 11.45% since the beginning of the year [47]