伊朗总统证实阿里拉里贾尼已经身亡

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market risk preference remains low, with gold prices oscillating slightly higher, silver prices falling by over 1%, and oil prices remaining strong due to the blocked passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the refusal of US allies to provide escort, leading to increasing inflationary pressure [1][12]. - A - shares continue to decline with shrinking trading volume, and there are no trend - based opportunities for short - term stock indices as the situation between the US and Iran escalates and funds shift between sectors [2][22]. - The focus of the bond market lies in the war and shipping situation in the strait. If oil prices remain high, inflation should be the main trading theme, and long - term bond varieties are in a weakly oscillating market [3][25]. - Steel prices continue to oscillate slightly stronger, but the market driving force is still insufficient, and the subsequent inventory reduction speed of finished products is uncertain [4][30]. - Oil prices are oscillating at a high level, and the security threat to Middle - East energy facilities is increasing [5][54]. - The container shipping price from Shanghai to Rotterdam by MSK has increased, and the freight rate is expected to remain strongly oscillating in the short term [6][62]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury auctioned $13 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds, with a winning bid rate of 4.817% and a bid - to - cover ratio of 2.76 [11]. - After the death of Ali Larijani, gold prices oscillated slightly higher, silver prices fell by over 1%, and inflationary pressure increased. Short - term precious metals are under pressure, and the silver performance is weaker than that of gold [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US military launched an attack on missile launch sites near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump criticized NATO allies, and the US dollar index is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The White House economic advisor believes that the Iran conflict will end within a few weeks. After the death of Larijani, the Middle - East situation escalates, but the financial market has priced in the war's persistence. The US stock market has rebounded for two consecutive days, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [18][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, and the National Development and Reform Commission has launched $13.4 billion in major foreign - funded projects. A - shares are falling with shrinking trading volume, and there are no short - term trend - based opportunities. It is recommended to reduce positions to avoid risks [21][22][23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 51 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1.15 billion yuan. The bond market focuses on the war and shipping situation. If oil prices remain high, inflation is the main trading theme, and short - term short - selling has a slightly higher cost - performance ratio [24][25][26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Wuhai is running stably. The supply side is increasing, and the demand side is expected to improve. The short - term market is in a supply - demand balance, and price fluctuations are mainly affected by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict [27][28]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China State Construction's new contract value from January to February increased by 0.9% year - on - year. Steel prices are oscillating slightly stronger, but the driving force is weak. The inventory reduction speed is uncertain, and the upside space is limited [29][30][31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in Beigang is stable. The internal and external coal prices are decoupled, and the overseas coal price is rising. If the conflict lasts until May - June, the domestic coal price may rise passively. The short - term price oscillates, and there is an upward risk in the long term [32][33]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - MinRes's Lamb Creek iron ore project has achieved its first shipment. The iron ore price continues to oscillate. Considering factors such as freight costs and potential mining cost increases, the short - term downward trend is not clear [34]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The policy of the lowest - price wheat auction has been adjusted, which may suppress the corn feed demand. The supply side's grain sales progress is slow, and the port inventory is low. The demand side has support. The short - term market is in a multi - factor game, and the price is expected to stabilize and rebound in the medium and long term [35][36]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The government has launched a hydrogen energy application pilot project, which is beneficial to platinum demand in the long term. The fundamental driving force of platinum and palladium has weakened. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider long - platinum and short - palladium opportunities [37][38][39]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The auction price of lithium spodumene concentrate is 15,617 yuan/ton. The supply side may face cost increases and production cuts, and the demand side has support. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [40][41][42]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead has a discount. The lead price is under pressure but has cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities on dips [43][44][45]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc has a discount, and the inventory has increased. The zinc price is in a short - term adjustment period. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks in the mid - term [46][47]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - River Steel Resources' South African subsidiary's copper mining has partially resumed production, and Rio Tinto plans to invest $500 million in a copper mine exploration. The copper price is affected by the Middle - East situation and terminal demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider an internal - external positive arbitrage strategy [48][50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin has a discount. The supply side's repair expectation is strong, and the demand side is weak. The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term [51][52]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iraq is expected to resume oil exports from Turkish ports, and an oil and gas facility in the UAE has been attacked. Oil prices are oscillating at a high level, and the short - term risk premium is affected by the Strait of Hormuz situation [53][54][55]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The LPG price is oscillating at a high level. The domestic market price is stable, and the external market has a slight correction. It is recommended to manage risks due to the fluctuating Middle - East news [56]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt production of local refineries in April is expected to decrease. The supply side is tight, and the price is likely to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [57][58]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA closing price is 81.58 yuan/ton, with a 0.45% decline. The carbon market is in a policy window period, and the price is oscillating narrowly. Enterprises in need can consider buying on dips [59][60]. 3.2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Indian and Pakistani transport ships have successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The MSK Shanghai - Rotterdam shipping price has increased, and the freight rate is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term, with the bottom of the oscillation range rising [61][62].