金融衍生品策略日报：股市面临压力，预计调整可控-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market is under pressure, but the adjustment is expected to be controllable. The adjustment of stock index futures is tentatively considered controllable; the stock index option market is in the process of bottom - building sentiment, and short - term tail risks should be focused on; the bond market is supported by the loose capital situation [1]. - For stock index futures, on Tuesday, the equity market declined unilaterally, with the All - A index falling by more than 1.5%. The telecommunications, electronics, and military industries led the decline, while banks and insurance rose against the trend. The reasons for the decline are financial sector fund diversion and concerns about tail risks due to geopolitical conflicts. The attitude towards the decline space is relatively optimistic, and the operation is mainly to hold the bottom position and look for opportunities to replenish positions later. The end of March and early April are the observation windows [1][6]. - For stock index options, the underlying market opened high and closed low yesterday, and small and medium - cap stocks suffered a large intraday decline. The trading volume of the option market remained high, and the proportion of call option trading volume increased marginally, which is contrary to the market trend. The market is in the emotional bottom - building stage, and short - term call options should be bought to prevent tail risks [2][6]. - For treasury bond futures, the treasury bond futures rose across the board yesterday. The price of the T main contract first declined and then rose. Geopolitical conflicts and oil price fluctuations affect the bond market through inflation expectations, while the increasing motivation of allocation funds and the loose capital situation support the bond market. The cost - performance of bond allocation may rise again [3][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Outlook - Stock Index Futures: The view is that the adjustment is controllable. The logic is that the equity market declined on Tuesday, and the reasons for the decline are financial sector fund diversion and concerns about tail risks. The attitude towards the decline space is optimistic. The operation suggestion is to hold the IM bottom position [6]. - Stock Index Options: The view is that the market is in the process of bottom - building sentiment and short - term tail risks should be focused on. The logic is that the underlying market opened high and closed low, and the proportion of call option trading volume increased marginally. The suggestion is to buy options for defense [6]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The view is that the capital situation supports the bond market. The logic is that the treasury bond futures rose across the board, affected by geopolitical conflicts, inflation expectations, and the loose capital situation. The operation suggestions include a trend strategy of being cautiously bullish, a hedging strategy of paying attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels, a basis strategy of paying attention to ultra - long - term basis opportunities, and a curve strategy of paying attention to the convergence opportunity of the 30Y - 10Y spread [8]. 3.2 Derivatives Market Monitoring - Stock Index Futures Data: Not provided in the report. - Stock Index Options Data: Not provided in the report. - Treasury Bond Futures Data: Not provided in the report.