有色每日报告：市场聚焦美联储议息会议，铂钯震荡运行-20260318

Group 1: Market Performance - On March 17, 2026, the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 4.27% to 552.70 yuan/gram, and the palladium main contract rose 2.30% to 407.75 yuan/gram [1] Group 2: Platinum Analysis - Core View: The market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and platinum prices fluctuate. The US - Iran conflict provides support for precious metals, but high oil prices raise inflation expectations and delay Fed rate - cut expectations, suppressing platinum prices. In the long run, a weakening US dollar is beneficial for platinum price valuation, but the US - Iran conflict also has an impact [2] - Main Logic: The US - Iran conflict continues, and the resulting risk - aversion supports precious metal prices. High oil prices lead to higher inflation expectations and a delay in Fed rate - cut expectations, suppressing platinum prices. If the US - Iran conflict lasts long, the elasticity of platinum prices will be significantly suppressed. In the long run, the damage to the Fed's independence and the loosening of the global political and economic order will weaken the US dollar, which is favorable for platinum price valuation [2] - Outlook: Platinum prices are expected to fluctuate as high energy prices raise US inflation expectations and delay Fed rate - cut expectations [2] Group 3: Palladium Analysis - Core View: There is no obvious driver for palladium, and its price follows the fluctuation of platinum [3] - Main Logic: On the supply side, there is continuous uncertainty. The US has imposed anti - dumping duties on Russian unforged palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions on Russian palladium. On the demand side, palladium faces structural pressure. In the long term, the supply - demand situation for palladium is loosening, but there are still short - term supply disturbances [3] - Outlook: Palladium prices are expected to fluctuate as the tightness of the spot market has recently eased, and there is macro - level suppression [3] Group 4: Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index was 2591.86, down 0.61%; the commodity 20 index was 2926.66, down 0.58%; the industrial products index was 2565.21, down 0.51% on March 17, 2026 [49] - Non - ferrous Metals Index: On March 17, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2699.75, with a daily increase of 0.42%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.77%, a 1 - month increase of 0.70%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.51% [51]