能源化工日报-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, recommend a short - term bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent inter - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, suggest taking profits at high prices as it already incorporates current geopolitical premiums and short - term supply - demand has no major contradictions [3]. - For urea, suggest short - selling as the expected high - level production in the first quarter and the marginal impact of export quotas are considered. There may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [6]. - For rubber, suggest flexible trading, setting stop - losses, and considering a hedging strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, expect short - term price rebounds but be cautious of risks due to factors such as cost increases and potential supply shortages [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, recommend staying on the sidelines as the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and geopolitical factors cause large market fluctuations [18]. - For polyethylene, suggest shorting the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [21]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [24]. - For PX, expect the valuation to rise as the load is expected to decline and the inventory is expected to decrease, but be cautious of short - term over - increase [27]. - For PTA, expect the processing fee to be difficult to rise and the PXN to have room for significant increase under the influence of geopolitical factors, but be cautious of short - term over - increase [30]. - For ethylene glycol, expect the load to decline, imports to decrease, and inventory to turn into a de - stocking cycle. Be cautious of short - term over - increase [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: INE main crude oil futures closed down 9.20 yuan/barrel, a 1.19% decline, at 761.20 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 19.00 yuan/ton, a 0.40% decline, at 4771.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 5.00 yuan/ton, a 0.09% increase, at 5641.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Recommend a short - term bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent inter - regional spread [2]. Methanol - Market Information: The main contract changed by 8.00 yuan/ton, at 2847 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by - 216 yuan [3]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Suggest taking profits at high prices as it already incorporates current geopolitical premiums and short - term supply - demand has no major contradictions [3]. Urea - Market Information: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast remained unchanged, while in Hebei it decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 8 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by - 22 yuan/ton, at 1878 yuan/ton [5]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Suggest short - selling as the expected high - level production in the first quarter and the marginal impact of export quotas are considered. There may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [6]. Rubber - Market Information: The market changes rapidly. Bulls expect price increases due to macro expectations, seasonal factors, and demand expectations, while bears expect price decreases due to weak demand. As of March 12, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 68.64%, up 2.23 percentage points from last week and down 0.45 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 76.69%, up 3.17 percentage points from last week and down 6.11 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel exports to the Middle East slowed down, and there was concentrated export to the EU. As of March 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 138.3 tons, a 1.21% increase [8][9]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Suggest flexible trading, setting stop - losses, and considering a hedging strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [11]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC05 contract rose 52 yuan, at 5901 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5730 (- 40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 171 (- 92) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 16 (+ 16) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 81.4%, up 0.2%. The downstream operating rate was 39.3%, up 3.5%. Factory inventory was 37.7 tons (- 8.1), and social inventory was 140.7 tons (+ 0.3) [13]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Expect short - term price rebounds but be cautious of risks due to factors such as cost increases and potential supply shortages [14]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - Market Information: The cost - end East China pure benzene price was 8390 yuan/ton, unchanged. The pure benzene active contract closing price was 8443 yuan/ton, unchanged. The pure benzene basis was - 53 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan increase. The styrene spot price was 10150 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase. The styrene active contract closing price was 10204 yuan/ton, a 58 - yuan increase. The basis was - 54 yuan/ton, a 42 - yuan strengthening. The BZN spread was 47.5 yuan/ton, a 27.25 - yuan increase. The EB non - integrated device profit was - 58.1 yuan/ton, a 70 - yuan increase. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 71.79%, a 2.32% decrease. The Jiangsu port inventory was 16.65 tons, a 0.91 - ton de - stocking. The demand - end three - S weighted operating rate was 40.79%, a 10.34% increase [17]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Recommend staying on the sidelines as the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and geopolitical factors cause large market fluctuations [18]. Polyethylene - Market Information: The main contract closing price was 8496 yuan/ton, a 181 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 8375 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 121 yuan/ton, an 81 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 81.77%, a 0.76% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 57.54 tons, a 3.92 - ton increase. The trader inventory was 5.00 tons, a 0.77 - ton de - stocking. The downstream average operating rate was 30%, a 1.38% increase. The LL5 - 9 spread was 294 yuan/ton, an 11 - yuan decrease [20]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Suggest shorting the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [21]. Polypropylene - Market Information: The main contract closing price was 8671 yuan/ton, a 186 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 8700 yuan/ton, a 125 - yuan increase. The basis was 29 yuan/ton, a 311 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 68.42%, a 0.44% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 68 tons, a 2.49 - ton increase. The trader inventory was 20.61 tons, a 0.655 - ton de - stocking. The port inventory was 7.47 tons, a 0.67 - ton de - stocking. The downstream average operating rate was 45.87%, a 9.13% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 175 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase. The PP5 - 9 spread was 492 yuan/ton, a 59 - yuan decrease [22][23]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [24]. PX - Market Information: The PX05 contract decreased by 162 yuan, at 10018 yuan. The 5 - 7 spread was 278 yuan (- 126). The Chinese PX load was 84.7%, a 5.7% decrease. The Asian load was 76.9%, a 6.3% decrease. Many domestic and overseas devices reduced their loads. The PTA load was 77.3%, a 3.7% decrease. In early March, South Korea's PX exports to China were 15.7 tons, a 1.8 - ton decrease year - on - year. The inventory at the end of January was 464 tons, a 1 - ton decrease month - on - month. The PXN was 229 dollars (+ 16), the South Korean PX - MX was 81 dollars (+ 11), and the naphtha cracking spread was 312 dollars (+ 14) [26]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Expect the valuation to rise as the load is expected to decline and the inventory is expected to decrease, but be cautious of short - term over - increase [27]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA05 contract decreased by 64 yuan, at 6918 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 248 yuan (- 44). The PTA load was 77.3%, a 3.7% decrease. The downstream load was 86.7%, a 2.6% increase. The terminal texturing load increased by 12% to 74%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 64%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on March 6 was 262.3 tons, a 2.6 - ton increase. The disk processing fee increased by 42 yuan, to 346 yuan [29]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Expect the processing fee to be difficult to rise and the PXN to have room for significant increase under the influence of geopolitical factors, but be cautious of short - term over - increase [30]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG05 contract decreased by 71 yuan, at 4826 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 67 yuan (- 15). The ethylene glycol load was 66.8%, a 5.7% decrease. The downstream load was 86.7%, a 2.6% increase. The import arrival forecast was 15 tons, and the East China departure on March 16 was 1.06 tons. The port inventory was 101.1 tons, a 5.7 - ton de - stocking. The naphtha - based profit was - 2820 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 1854 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 1160 yuan. The cost - end ethylene rose to 1200 dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder price fell to 550 yuan [32][33]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Expect the load to decline, imports to decrease, and inventory to turn into a de - stocking cycle. Be cautious of short - term over - increase [34].