五矿期货早报|有色金属：有色金属日报-20260318

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the repeated Middle - East conflicts, high oil prices increase inflation and economic weakness, suppressing sentiment, but the key mineral resource attribute provides support. The copper price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the Shanghai copper main contract in the range of 98,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton and the LME copper 3M contract in the range of 12,600 - 12,900 US dollars/ton [2] - The overseas aluminum supply is still under threat, and the domestic inventory is expected to peak and decline. The aluminum price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract in the range of 24,700 - 25,200 yuan/ton and the LME aluminum 3M contract in the range of 3,320 - 3,450 US dollars/ton [4] - The lead price is supported in the short - term, but there is a possibility of further decline. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of secondary smelters and the sustainability of battery enterprise orders [7] - The zinc industry remains weak, and the zinc price has a risk of downward breakthrough [10] - The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level, with the domestic main contract in the range of 350,000 - 420,000 yuan/ton and the overseas LME tin in the range of 45,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton [13] - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate, with the Shanghai nickel price in the range of 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton and the LME nickel 3M contract in the range of 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton. It is recommended to operate within the range [16] - The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 146,000 - 166,000 yuan/ton [19] - For alumina, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton [22] - The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 13,900 - 14,500 yuan/ton [25] - The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to remain high in the short - term [28] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market Information: The LME copper 3M contract closed down 1.07% to 12,780 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 99,140 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 18,775 tons to 330,375 tons, and the domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 to 324,000 tons. The spot in East China changed from premium to discount of 100 yuan/ton, and the copper spot in Guangdong was at a discount of 25 yuan/ton to the futures. The domestic copper spot import profit was about 200 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 690 yuan/ton [1] - Strategy Viewpoint: The copper price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the Shanghai copper main contract in the range of 98,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton and the LME copper 3M contract in the range of 12,600 - 12,900 US dollars/ton [2] Aluminum - Market Information: The LME aluminum 3M contract closed down 0.81% to 3,364 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,915 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position decreased by 3.4 to 645,000 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.4 to 391,000 tons. The LME inventory decreased by 0.3 to 440,000 tons. The spot discount in East China expanded to 210 yuan/ton [3] - Strategy Viewpoint: The aluminum price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract in the range of 24,700 - 25,200 yuan/ton and the LME aluminum 3M contract in the range of 3,320 - 3,450 US dollars/ton [4] Lead - Market Information: The Shanghai lead index closed up 1.60% to 16,603 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S rose 28 to 1,921.5 US dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,425 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was at par. The domestic SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 67,700 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 284,600 tons [6] - Strategy Viewpoint: The lead price is supported in the short - term, but there is a possibility of further decline. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of secondary smelters and the sustainability of battery enterprise orders [7] Zinc - Market Information: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.85% to 23,731 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S fell 17 to 3,254.5 US dollars/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 23,870 yuan/ton. The domestic SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 98,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 97,500 tons [9] - Strategy Viewpoint: The zinc industry remains weak, and the zinc price has a risk of downward breakthrough [10] Tin - Market Information: On March 17, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 375,110 yuan/ton, up 0.47%. The SHFE inventory decreased by 322 tons to 11,673 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 30 tons to 8,745 tons. The supply side is in a state of "post - festival recovery but limited upside", and the demand side is in a weak recovery stage [12] - Strategy Viewpoint: The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level, with the domestic main contract in the range of 350,000 - 420,000 yuan/ton and the overseas LME tin in the range of 45,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton [13] Nickel - Market Information: On March 17, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 135,940 yuan/ton, down 0.34%. The spot premium of Russian nickel increased by 100 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, and the spot premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 6,550 yuan/ton. The price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was 71.64 US dollars/wet ton, and the price of 1.2% - grade was 32.5 US dollars/wet ton. The price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1 yuan/nickel point to 1,093.5 yuan/nickel point [15] - Strategy Viewpoint: The nickel price is expected to fluctuate, with the Shanghai nickel price in the range of 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton and the LME nickel 3M contract in the range of 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton. It is recommended to operate within the range [16] Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 155,709 yuan, up 1.02%. The MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 152,800 - 159,500 yuan, with an average increase of 1,650 yuan (+1.07%), and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.69%. The LC2605 contract closed at 155,320 yuan, down 2.69%, and the average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,100 yuan [18] - Strategy Viewpoint: The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 146,000 - 166,000 yuan/ton [19] Alumina - Market Information: On March 17, the alumina index rose 3.64% to 3,084 yuan/ton, and the unilateral trading position increased by 25,000 to 465,200 hands. The Shandong spot price rose 20 yuan/ton to 2,665 yuan/ton, at a discount of 408 yuan/ton to the main contract. The MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at 302 US dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was 66 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.36 to 404,000 tons. The Guinea CIF price rose 1 US dollar/ton to 63 US dollars/ton, and the Australian CIF price remained at 57 US dollars/ton [21] - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton [22] Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,095 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged. The raw material prices also remained stable. The futures inventory decreased by 773 to 51,240 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 1,086,100 tons, a decrease of 0.79% [24] - Strategy Viewpoint: The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 13,900 - 14,500 yuan/ton [25] Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The casting aluminum alloy price rose and then fell, with the main AD2604 contract closing down 0.44% to 23,725 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased to 20,600 hands, and the trading volume was 10,200 hands. The warehouse receipts decreased by 0.04 to 53,100 tons. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price rebounded 100 yuan/ton, and the import ADC12 price remained stable. The domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased by 0.03 to 35,700 tons [27] - Strategy Viewpoint: The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to remain high in the short - term [28]