贵金属：贵金属日报2026-03-18-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current gold price shows a sideways trend. In the context of the US - Iran war, the sharp rise in oil prices boosts market inflation expectations and makes the market re - evaluate the US economy's ability to withstand energy shocks. The US Q4 2025 GDP was significantly revised down to 0.7%, partly due to the government shutdown, but consumer resilience remains. In January 2026, the PCE and core PCE data were 2.8% and 3.1% year - on - year respectively, still significantly higher than the Fed's 2% policy target, with the core PCE data reaching a one - year high. Against the background of rising energy prices, price upward pressure may intensify. The upcoming FOMC meeting is likely to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged and maintain a data - dependent decision - making framework without presetting future policy paths. In the short term, precious metal prices are difficult to break out of the range. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 1050 - 1160 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 18700 - 22300 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Precious Metal Prices: Shanghai Gold fell 0.16% to 1114.36 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver fell 1.88% to 20088.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold fell 0.04% to 5006.30 US dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver fell 0.84% to 79.25 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.20%, and the US dollar index was 99.55 [2]. - Economic Data: The US Q4 2025 GDP was significantly revised down to 0.7%, partly due to the government shutdown. In January 2026, the US PCE price index rose 2.8% year - on - year, the core PCE rose to 3.1% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, still significantly higher than the Fed's 2% policy target. The one - year inflation expectation in March was stable at 3.4%, and the long - term expectation slightly dropped from 3.3% to 3.2% [2]. - Geopolitical Events: Iranian officials were killed in an air strike. US President Trump was angry that his allies were reluctant to participate in the escort operation in the Strait of Hormuz, criticized the UK and French leaders, and said that the issue of the US withdrawing from NATO was worth considering [3]. 3.2 Key Data of Gold and Silver - COMEX Gold: The open interest increased by 1.02% to 41.40 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.49% to 1003 tons. The LBMA gold closing price decreased by 0.99% to 4994.85 US dollars/ounce. The SHFE gold closing price decreased by 0.19% to 1116.20 yuan/gram, the trading volume decreased by 32.08% to 23.80 million lots, the open interest decreased by 0.43% to 31.03 million lots, the inventory decreased by 0.10% to 105.32 tons, and the settled funds decreased by 0.62% to 554.23 billion yuan. The AuT + D trading volume decreased by 23.82% to 39.20 tons, and the open interest decreased by 2.08% to 229.93 tons [6]. - COMEX Silver: The open interest increased by 1.88% to 11.55 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.50% to 10510 tons. The LBMA silver closing price decreased by 5.68% to 78.95 US dollars/ounce. The SHFE silver closing price increased by 0.03% to 20308.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume decreased by 27.41% to 88.84 million lots, the open interest decreased by 1.08% to 47.40 million lots, the inventory increased by 6.97% to 353.76 tons, and the settled funds decreased by 1.05% to 259.88 billion yuan. The AgT + D trading volume decreased by 40.16% to 172.51 tons, and the open interest increased by 0.02% to 2887.258 tons [6]. 3.3 ETF Holdings - Gold ETFs: The iShare US gold holding decreased by 0.29% to 485.73 tons; the GBS UK, SGBS Switzerland holdings remained unchanged; the PHAU UK holding decreased by 0.03% to 53.81 tons; the GOLD UK holding decreased by 0.08% to 29.96 tons [63]. - Silver ETFs: The SLV US and PSLV Canada, CEF Canada silver holdings remained unchanged; the ETPMAG Australia silver holding decreased by 0.41% to 483.10 tons. The closing price of silver ETFs decreased by 2.13% to 71.66 US dollars, the settled funds increased by 1.83% to 396.80 billion US dollars, and the trading volume decreased by 11.95% to 3274.82 million shares [63].