格林大华期货早盘提示：尿素-20260318

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the unclear geopolitical situation in the Middle East, international crude oil fluctuates sharply. Some urea production facilities in the Middle East are temporarily shut down, leading to a significant increase in overseas urea prices. The middle and lower reaches are cautious about accepting high - priced goods, while the upstream factories currently face little pressure. Exports are urgently halted, and reserve supplies are expected to be released into the market. It is expected that the urea price will oscillate within the range of 1820 - 1950 [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Tuesday, the price of the urea main contract 2605 dropped by 33 yuan to 1878 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central - China mainstream area fell by 10 yuan to 1860 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 119 to 278,000, and short positions decreased by 2615 to 323,000 [1] 2. Important Information - Supply: The daily production of the urea industry is 221,200 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons compared to the previous working day and 298,000 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate is 93.95%, an 8.88% increase compared to 85.07% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 957,600 tons, a decrease of 140,500 tons from the previous period, a 12.79% month - on - month decrease. The sample inventory at urea ports is 189,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 37%, a 3.6% month - on - month increase, and the operating rate of melamine is 55.9%, an 8.2% month - on - month decrease [1] - Tender: India's RCF urea import tender, with the latest shipping date on March 31, received 20 suppliers with a total bid volume of over 3.07 million tons. The lowest offer on the east coast is CFR512 dollars/ton, and on the west coast is CFR508 dollars/ton. India intends to purchase 1.5 million tons in this tender [1] - Import and Export in December 2025: Urea imports were 35.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 82.11%; the average import price was 2963.69 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 52.11%. Urea exports were 278,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 53.75%; the average export price was 398.27 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 56.64% [1] - Oil Price: The tense atmosphere in the Middle East persists, and supply risks continue, causing international oil prices to rise. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose 2.71 dollars/barrel to 96.21 dollars/barrel, a 2.90% month - on - month increase; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract rose 3.21 dollars/barrel to 103.42 dollars/barrel, a 3.20% month - on - month increase. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2605 contract dropped 25.9 to 744.5 yuan/barrel and rose 20.4 to 764.9 yuan/barrel in the night session [1] 3. Market Logic - The unclear geopolitical situation in the Middle East leads to sharp fluctuations in international crude oil. Some urea production facilities in the Middle East are temporarily shut down, causing a significant increase in overseas urea prices. The middle and lower reaches are cautious about accepting high - priced goods, while the upstream factories currently face little pressure. Exports are urgently halted, and reserve supplies are expected to be released into the market [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see [1]