黑色建材日报 2026-03-18-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate and strengthen. The real - estate data from January to February was still weak, and the short - term support from real estate for steel demand was limited. The steel fundamentals were in a neutral - weak state, and the prices were expected to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price trends on the cost side [2]. - The overseas supply of iron ore was fluctuating at a high level with a marginal decline. Affected by negotiation issues and overseas geopolitical conflicts, the iron ore price was expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations and the development of the geopolitical situation [4]. - Due to the ongoing US - Iran conflict, the overall sentiment in the commodity market was bullish. It was not suitable to operate in the short - term short direction. It was advisable to look for short - term rebound opportunities in undervalued and highly elastic varieties. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon were affected by the overall market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply - contraction factors for ferrosilicon [8][9]. - The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by the energy sentiment premium from the Middle - East situation. In the short term, the demand for coking coal and coke was restricted by inventory structure, but there might be upward pulses in coking coal prices. In the long term, coking coal prices were expected to rise from June to October [13][14]. - The industrial silicon market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand, and was expected to fluctuate under cost support. The polysilicon market had weak fundamentals, and the price was expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [17][19]. - The glass market was expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to the release rhythm of actual demand and inventory changes. The soda ash market was expected to continue a strong - fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to the release rhythm of actual demand and inventory changes in the main production areas [22][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3148 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.254%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 41,649 tons, an increase of 1524 tons compared with the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 1.5495 million lots, a decrease of 24,530 lots. The aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3313 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (0.424%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 474,288 tons, a decrease of 295 tons. The open interest of the main contract was 1.1799 million lots, a decrease of 3908 lots. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3290 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - The real - estate data from January to February was weak, and the short - term support from real estate for steel demand was limited. The steel fundamentals were in a neutral - weak state, and the prices were expected to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price trends on the cost side [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 816.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.93% (+7.50). The open interest changed by +2876 lots to 461,700 lots. The weighted open interest was 883,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 798 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 31.39 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 3.70% [3]. Strategy Viewpoints - The overseas ore shipments in the latest period rebounded month - on - month. The shipments from Australia increased, those from Brazil were basically stable, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries increased slightly. The near - end arrivals decreased. The daily average hot - metal output decreased by 63,900 tons to 2.212 million tons. The blast - furnace maintenance was mainly due to environmental protection restrictions, concentrated in Hebei. The resumption of blast furnaces was expected to be gradually realized in the next period. The steel - mill profitability increased month - on - month. The port inventory increased slightly and remained at a high level. Affected by negotiation issues and overseas geopolitical conflicts, the iron ore price was expected to fluctuate widely [4]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On March 17, the main manganese silicon contract (SM605) rose 1.27% during the day and closed at 6240 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, equivalent to 6190 yuan on the disk, with a discount of 50 yuan/ton to the disk. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF605) rose 0.95% during the day and closed at 5928 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, with a premium of 122 yuan/ton to the disk [7]. Strategy Viewpoints - Due to the ongoing US - Iran conflict, the overall sentiment in the commodity market was bullish. It was not suitable to operate in the short - term short direction. It was advisable to look for short - term rebound opportunities in undervalued and highly elastic varieties. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon was still not ideal, but most of these factors had been priced in. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon were good. The future market trends of the two were affected by the overall market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply - contraction factors for ferrosilicon [8][9]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On March 17, the main coking coal contract (JM2605) rebounded after a decline during the day and finally closed down 0.42% at 1176.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1459.7 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1267 yuan/ton on the disk, with a premium of 91 yuan/ton to the disk; the price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1300 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1284 yuan/ton on the disk, with a premium of 108 yuan/ton to the disk; the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1210 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1185 yuan/ton on the disk, with a premium of 9 yuan/ton to the disk. The main coke contract (J2605) closed down 0.80% at 1732.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged; equivalent to 1725.5 yuan/ton on the disk, with a discount of 6.5 yuan/ton to the disk; the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1495 yuan/ton, unchanged; equivalent to 1710.5 yuan/ton on the disk, with a discount of 21.5 yuan/ton to the disk [11]. Strategy Viewpoints - The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by the energy sentiment premium from the Middle - East situation. In the short term, the demand for coking coal and coke was restricted by inventory structure, but there might be upward pulses in coking coal prices. In the long term, coking coal prices were expected to rise from June to October [13][14]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main industrial silicon futures contract (SI2605) was 8560 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.44% (- 125). The weighted contract open interest changed by +7709 lots to 350,782 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - passed 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 640 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract after converting to the disk price was 240 yuan/ton [16]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main polysilicon futures contract (PS2605) was 41,670 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.08% (- 35). The weighted contract open interest changed by - 534 lots to 54,645 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon in the SMM caliber was 44 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 43 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 45.5 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/kg. The basis of the main contract was 3830 yuan/ton [18]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: The market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand, and was expected to fluctuate under cost support [17]. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals were weak, and the price was expected to be under pressure and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the new order transaction situation [19]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: On Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1094 yuan/ton, down 0.73% (- 8). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1070 yuan, unchanged; the price in Central China was 1090 yuan, unchanged. On March 12, the weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 75.849 million boxes, a decrease of 3.788 million boxes (- 4.76%). Among the top 20 holders of long positions, 6213 long positions were added, and among the top 20 holders of short positions, 17,728 short positions were added [21]. - Soda ash: On Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the main soda - ash contract closed at 1243 yuan/ton, down 1.04% (- 13). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1223 yuan, a decrease of 13 yuan. On March 12, the weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.9317 million tons, a decrease of 15,500 tons (- 4.76%), including 918,100 tons of heavy - soda - ash inventory, a decrease of 1800 tons, and 1.0136 million tons of light - soda - ash inventory, a decrease of 13,700 tons. Among the top 20 holders of long positions, 1734 long positions were added, and among the top 20 holders of short positions, 4480 short positions were added [23]. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: The market was expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of actual demand during the "Golden March and Silver April" and inventory changes in the main production areas. The reference range for the main contract was 1050 - 1160 yuan/ton [22]. - Soda ash: The market was expected to continue a strong - fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of actual demand during the "Golden March and Silver April" and inventory changes in the main production areas. The reference range for the main contract was 1200 - 1300 yuan/ton [24].