观点与策略：国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: There are frequent speculation themes, and it still has a short - term strong tendency [2]. - Soybean oil: The driving force of the soybean system is limited, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US consultations [2]. - Soybean meal: Market sentiment has recovered, and Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [2]. - Soybean: The spot price in the producing area is stable, and the futures price may fluctuate [2]. - Corn: It will run in a fluctuating manner [2]. - Sugar: Raw sugar is strengthening, and it will fluctuate with an upward bias [2]. - Cotton: There is a phased situation of strong overseas and weak domestic markets [2]. - Eggs: It will fluctuate within a range [2]. - Pigs: Inventory reduction and weight loss will start, and the duration may exceed expectations [2]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the macro - impact [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: Palm oil futures prices declined, with the day - session closing price at 9,954 yuan/ton (down 0.56%) and the night - session at 9,876 yuan/ton (down 0.78%); soybean oil futures prices also declined, with the day - session closing price at 8,644 yuan/ton (down 0.83%) and the night - session at 8,622 yuan/ton (down 0.25%). Spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased [4]. - News: International companies suspended some Brazilian soybean exports last week, and the slow progress of the Brazilian soybean harvest worried the market about the tightening of China's imported soybean supply from March to April, leading to a significant increase in soybean meal trading volume. The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 15 increased by 12.68% compared with the same period last month. The US is about to implement the bio - fuel blending policy, and the White House may announce the final rules in late March [5][6][7]. - Trend Intensity: Palm oil trend intensity is 1; soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamentals: DCE soybean 2605 closed at 4,935 yuan/ton (up 0.02%) in the day - session and 4,931 yuan/ton (up 0.35%) in the night - session; DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 3,070 yuan/ton (down 0.42%) in the day - session and 3,056 yuan/ton (up 0.39%) in the night - session. Spot prices of soybean meal in different regions had different changes [11]. - News: On March 17, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to the strengthening of international crude oil futures and the upcoming implementation of the US bio - fuel blending policy. Brazil's soybean export volume in March is expected to be 1.632 billion tons, slightly lower than last week's forecast. Brazilian officials will visit China next week to discuss health and quarantine issues [11][13]. - Trend Intensity: Both soybean meal and soybean trend intensities are 0 [13]. Corn - Fundamentals: The closing price of C2605 was 2,379 yuan/ton (down 0.42%) in the day - session and 2,385 yuan/ton (up 0.25%) in the night - session; the closing price of C2607 was 2,392 yuan/ton (down 0.37%) in the day - session and 2,394 yuan/ton (up 0.08%) in the night - session. Spot prices in some regions increased [15]. - News: The price of northern corn for bulk shipping and container shipping increased by 10 yuan/ton. Northeast corn prices partially rose by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and North China corn prices fluctuated [16]. - Trend Intensity: Corn trend intensity is 0 [16]. Sugar - Fundamentals: The raw sugar price was 14.45 cents/pound (up 0.26), the mainstream spot price was 5,440 yuan/ton (down 10), and the futures main - contract price was 5,406 yuan/ton (down 66) [18]. - News: As of March 15, the sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season in India increased by 10% year - on - year. CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season to be 1.17 billion tons, and ISO expects a global sugar supply surplus of about 163 million tons in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season [18][19]. - Trend Intensity: Sugar trend intensity is 1 [20]. Cotton - Fundamentals: CF260 closed at 15,415 yuan/ton (down 0.42%) in the day - session and 15,385 yuan/ton (down 0.19%) in the night - session; CY2605 closed at