宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026年3月18日）-20260318

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term market is subject to wide - range fluctuations due to sentiment, weather, and inventory data, with intensified short - term volatility. The prices of soymeal, palm oil, and soybean oil are expected to be oscillating with a slight upward bias in the short - term and remain in an oscillating state in the medium - term [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - Price Trend: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating with a slight upward bias; Reference view: oscillating with a slight upward bias [5][6] - Core Logic: Although short - term sentiment is frustrated, fundamental factors support the US soybean futures price. Brazil's soybean harvest progress is significantly slower than in previous years, and issues such as drought - induced yield reduction in Rio Grande do Sul and excessive rainfall in the north disrupt the supply rhythm, causing concerns about South American export disruptions. Additionally, the promotion of international biodiesel policies will continuously boost the industrial demand for soybean oil [5]. Palm Oil (P) - Price Trend: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating with a slight upward bias; Reference view: oscillating with a slight upward bias [6][7] - Core Logic: Malaysia's export data in the first half of March is strong, while Indonesia's plan to implement the B50 biodiesel program may limit future export volumes, increasing market concerns about supply. The domestic market is in a pattern of short - term supply tightness and weak demand, with the total inventory of the three major oils still accumulating, especially the significant year - on - year increase in palm oil inventory, which suppresses the spot performance. In the short - term, the oil market is dominated by external factors such as geopolitics, crude oil fluctuations, and biodiesel policy expectations, and the influence of fundamentals decreases [7]. Soybean Oil (2605) - Price Trend: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating with a slight upward bias; Reference view: oscillating with a slight upward bias [6] - Core Logic: Influenced by energy attributes, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, imported soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. Palm (2605) - Price Trend: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating with a slight upward bias; Reference view: oscillating with a slight upward bias [6] - Core Logic: Affected by energy attributes, Indonesia's biodiesel policy expectations, cost increase, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]