宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026年3月18日）-20260318

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market shows a weak - stable supply - demand pattern, and the ore price will fluctuate at a high level. The short - term and intraday trends of iron ore 2605 are oscillating and bullish, while the medium - term trend is oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term trend is oscillating and bullish, the medium - term trend is oscillating, and the intraday trend is also oscillating and bullish. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the weak - stable supply - demand pattern and high - level oscillation of ore prices [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - On the supply side, domestic port arrivals have declined, while miner shipments have increased again. According to the shipping schedule, subsequent arrivals will be stable, and domestic ore supply continues to recover, so the ore supply remains stable. On the demand side, steel mill production is restricted, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. However, after the meeting ends, steel mills will gradually resume production, and ore demand will improve. But considering the poor profitability of steel mills, the incremental space is uncertain. Currently, due to the increase in transportation costs and concerns about spot liquidity, bullish factors support the ore price to run strongly. However, the fundamentals of the ore market have not been substantially improved under the situation of stable supply and weak demand, and the valuation is relatively high, so the upward driving force is not strong, and the subsequent trend will turn into high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3].