LLDPE：裂解供应收缩，下游高价抵触；PP：多种原料供应受限，出口继续偏好

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - LLDPE faces a situation where cracking supply contracts, and downstream users resist high prices. For PP, the supply of multiple raw materials is restricted, and exports continue to be favorable [1]. - Geopolitical issues remain unresolved, affecting the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which is expected to strengthen the performance of naphtha and raise the cost of PE. There is an expected improvement in the demand for mulch film after the holiday, and the packaging film industry will gradually recover after the Lantern Festival. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang has achieved mass - production, with an increasing number of maintenance and load - reduction plans in March, a decline in standard product production, and a large inventory accumulation during the holiday [2]. - For PP, C3 is affected by supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and Iran, providing strong cost support. PDH maintenance is still at a high level. There will be no new production before the 2605 contract, intensifying the game between existing supply and demand. After the Lantern Festival, downstream industries are expected to resume work in a concentrated manner, with a month - on - month improvement in demand. PDH profit remains low, and multiple PDH units in South China have not resumed operation, so the marginal changes in cracking and PDH units should be closely monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: For L2605, the closing price was 8496, with a daily decline of 2.09%, trading volume of 1102531, and a decrease of 11231 in positions. For PP2605, the closing price was 8671, with a daily decline of 2.10%, trading volume of 1176087, and a decrease of 42481 in positions [1]. - Spread Data: The 05 - contract basis for L2605 was - 296 (compared to - 327 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was 294 (compared to 305 the previous day). For PP2605, the 05 - contract basis was - 121 (compared to - 207 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was 492 (compared to 551 the previous day) [1]. - Spot Price Data: In the North China region, the LLDPE spot price dropped from 8350 to 8200, and the PP spot price dropped from 8650 to 8500. In the East China region, the LLDPE spot price dropped from 8550 to 8350, and the PP spot price dropped from 8650 to 8550. In the South China region, the LLDPE spot price dropped from 8650 to 8500, and the PP spot price dropped from 8750 to 8650 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - For polyolefins, the HD production of Daqing and Baolai and the full - density production of Lanzhou Petrochemical have stopped, causing the PE operating rate to decline to around 80%. For PP, Yulong, Zhongjing, and Yanchang Zhongmei have resumed production, with the operating rate slightly rebounding from a low level, and there are new maintenance plans for Zhonghan and Zhongying in late March. The basis continues to be weak, the downstream operating rate of agricultural mulch film is the same as the same period, and the finished - product inventory of factories and dealers is low. If the spot price remains stable, the cost can be smoothly passed on [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 1, and that of PP is also 1 [4].