棉花：阶段性外强内弱20260318

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market shows a pattern of "externally strong and internally weak" in the short - term. ICE cotton futures rose due to technical buying and fund short - covering, while the domestic cotton spot market is still sluggish, and the procurement willingness of textile enterprises is not strong for now [1][3]. - The overall quotation of pure - cotton yarn is stable with a slight increase. The order delivery of textile enterprises is progressing orderly, the spot inventory is generally low, and they mainly consume the previous cotton inventory. The high - count pure - cotton yarn has good sales and stable prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - CF2605 closed at 15,415 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.42%, and the night - session closing price was 15,385 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.19%. CY2605 closed at 21,480 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.02%, and the night - session closing price was 21,405 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.35%. ICE cotton 5 closed at 68.71 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.39% [1]. - The trading volume of CF2605 was 607,756 lots, a decrease of 22,268 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1,153,430 lots, an increase of 3,822 lots. The trading volume of CY2605 was 9,953 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 14,042 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 12,482, a decrease of 13, and the effective forecast was 293, unchanged. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 307, a decrease of 12, and the effective forecast was 67, an increase of 252 [1]. - Spot Data: - The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,644 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan or 0.60% compared with the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,583 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan or 0.60%. The price in Shandong was 16,887 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan or 0.33%. The price in Hebei was 16,882 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan or 0.25%. The 3128B index was 16,821 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan or 0.37% [1]. - The Cotlook:A index was 76.45 cents/pound, an increase of 0.70 cents or 0.92%. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 22,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan or 0.23%. The arrival price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 22,496 yuan/ton, an increase of 184 yuan or 0.82% [1]. - Spread Data: The CF5 - 9 spread was - 75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: According to TTEB information, the domestic cotton spot market is still sluggish, and the procurement willingness of textile enterprises is not strong for now. The mainstream basis of spot is generally stable. There are different basis quotes for different types of cotton in different regions [2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The quotation of pure - cotton yarn of some manufacturers has been slightly increased, and the overall quotation is stable with a slight increase. The order delivery of textile enterprises is progressing orderly, the spot inventory is generally low, and they mainly consume the previous cotton inventory. The high - count pure - cotton yarn has good sales and stable prices [2]. - US Cotton: ICE cotton futures continued to rise yesterday, affected by technical buying and fund short - covering [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The cotton trend intensity is 1, with the trend intensity value ranging from - 2 to 2. The classification of strength is weak, weak - biased, neutral, strong - biased, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [6].