棕榈油：炒作题材频发，短期偏强基因仍在；豆油：豆系驱动有限，关注中美磋商进程

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Palm oil has frequent speculation themes and still has a short - term strong gene; soybean oil has limited drivers from the soybean system, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US consultation process [1] - The price outlook of edible oil remains unclear as weak import demand offsets the optimistic expectations of the biodiesel industry [4] 3. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,954 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 0.56% change and 9,876 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.78% change; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,644 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 0.83% change and 8,622 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.25% change; rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,833 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 1.16% change and 9,814 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.19% change; Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 4,583 ringgit/ton (day session) with a - 1.72% change and 4,591 ringgit/ton (night session) with a 0.22% change; CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 65.89 cents/pound with a 3.05% change [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 566,741 lots with a change of - 251,773 lots and an open interest of 360,226 lots with a change of 560 lots; soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 310,196 lots with a change of - 53,950 lots and an open interest of 604,521 lots with a change of - 22,619 lots; rapeseed oil主力 had a trading volume of 203,909 lots with a change of - 27,343 lots and an open interest of 233,669 lots with a change of - 11,060 lots [1] - Spot Prices: Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was priced at 9,960 yuan/ton with a - 80 yuan change; first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was priced at 8,950 yuan/ton with a - 110 yuan change; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was priced at 10,150 yuan/ton with a - 140 yuan change; Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price was 1,220 dollars/ton with a 25 dollars change [1] - Basis: Palm oil (Guangdong) had a basis of 6 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) had a basis of 306 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) had a basis of 317 yuan/ton [1] - Price Spreads: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 121 yuan/ton (previous trading day) compared to - 62 yuan/ton (two trading days ago); the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 1,310 yuan/ton compared to - 1,294 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 144 yuan/ton compared to 152 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 98 yuan/ton compared to 64 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 134 yuan/ton compared to 119 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - International companies suspended some Brazilian soybean exports last week, and the slow progress of Brazilian soybean harvesting has led to concerns about the tightening of imported soybean supply in China from March to April, resulting in a significant increase in soybean meal trading volume [2] - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 15 was 443,812 tons, a 12.68% increase compared to the same period last month [3][4] - US President Trump has invited farmers and biofuel producers to an "agricultural celebration" at the White House on March 27. The US Environmental Protection Agency has submitted the draft biofuel blending quotas for 2026 and 2027 to the White House, and the final regulations are expected to be released by the end of March [4] - From July 2025 to early March 2026, EU's palm oil imports decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, reflecting a general decline in EU internal consumption. The German Union for the Promotion of Oil and Protein Plants (UFOP) attributes this to the exclusion of palm - based biofuels from the calculation for meeting national quota obligations, which is planned to be implemented in 2030 and has been partially implemented by some member states. However, UFOP warns that the import of palm oil mill effluent (POME) may undermine this regulation. The total EU palm oil imports from July 1, 2025, to March 3, 2026, were about 1.9 million tons, lower than nearly 2 million tons in the same period last year [5] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [6]