铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The conflict between the US and Iran is escalating, leading to cautious recovery of market risk - appetite, with the focus on energy transportation risks and inflation expectations. The Fed's policy statement may be slightly hawkish, which will have an impact on the commodity market [2][6]. - The domestic A - share market is weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling and the trading volume shrinking. The bond market is in a weak and volatile pattern. The short - term market is likely to maintain volatility and sector differentiation [3]. - Different commodities have different trends. Metals such as copper, zinc, and tin are under pressure, while some agricultural products and steel products show signs of recovery [6][12][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate, with a low probability of short - term negotiation to end the war. The risk in the Strait of Hormuz is the core variable, and the political controversy in the US is rising. The market risk preference is cautiously recovering, with the 10Y US Treasury yield falling to 4.2% [2]. - Domestic: The SASAC focuses on "two important" and "two new" projects to expand effective investment. The A - share market is weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.85% to 4049 points. The bond market rebounds slightly, but is likely to remain in a weak and volatile pattern [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures closed mixed on Tuesday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.18% to $5011.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.51% to $79.46 per ounce. The geopolitical situation and inflation pressure jointly affect the market, and it is expected to remain volatile in the short term [4]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, the Shanghai copper main contract continued to fluctuate. LME inventory rose to 330,000 tons. The Fed's policy statement may be slightly hawkish, which is negative for the metal market in the short term. It is expected that copper prices will maintain range - bound fluctuations in the short term [6]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,990 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. The domestic aluminum social inventory is at a high level, and the spot transaction has a high discount. Although the supply - demand is weak, the bottom support of aluminum prices is still strong due to concerns about production cuts in the Middle East [8]. 3.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract rose 3.4% to 3,073 yuan/ton on Tuesday. Market expectations of supply disruptions in bauxite have increased, but the current price increase lacks significant capital support. Caution should be exercised regarding the upside space [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - The cast aluminum alloy futures main contract closed at 23,750 yuan/ton on Tuesday, down 0.08%. The cost support is good, but the supply - demand momentum is weak. It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [11]. 3.7 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract fell on Tuesday. LME inventory increased by 20,875 tons, which hit the market sentiment. The fundamentals support weakened, but the decline may be alleviated to some extent. It is expected to continue to seek support [12]. 3.8 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract rebounded from a low level. The downstream battery enterprises' purchasing boosted the price, but the high inventory will limit the rebound height. It is expected to maintain low - level range - bound fluctuations [13]. 3.9 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract adjusted on Tuesday. The geopolitical situation and the strong US dollar put pressure on the price. The fundamental support weakened, and it is expected to continue to adjust under the pressure of the strong US dollar [14]. 3.10 Nickel - The Shanghai nickel main contract stabilized on Tuesday. The geopolitical situation put pressure on the price, but the raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants decreased, and the mine price is expected to remain high. It is expected to maintain fluctuations in the short term [15]. 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded slightly on Tuesday, but the short - term bullish confidence was lacking. The global lithium resource supply is expected to gradually recover, and the demand in the energy - storage battery sector is strong. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [16]. 3.12 Steel (Screw and Roll) - Steel futures rebounded on Tuesday. The government's active fiscal policy promotes steel demand. The terminal demand recovers, and it is expected that steel prices will rebound in a volatile manner [18]. 3.13 Iron Ore - Iron ore futures were strong on Tuesday. The overseas shipment increased, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the downstream steel mills resumed production. It is expected that the ore price will rebound in a volatile manner [19]. 3.14 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - Double - coking futures rebounded on Tuesday. The coking coal price stabilized and rebounded, and the coke inventory in coking enterprises decreased. It is expected to rebound in a volatile manner [20]. 3.15 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Soybean meal 05 contract fell 0.42% on Tuesday, and rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 1.23%. Brazilian soybean harvest is about 60%, and the import cost supports the domestic market. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal will adjust in a volatile manner at a high level [22]. 3.16 Palm Oil - Palm oil 05 contract rose 0.30% on Tuesday. The energy supply concern in the Middle East and the improvement of palm oil exports support the price. It is expected to adjust in a volatile manner in the short term [24].