2026年3月18日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银-20260318

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the high - level oscillation of crude oil prices and the downward revision of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations suppress precious metals. In the long run, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged due to multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, anti - inflation needs, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases. Silver, platinum, and palladium follow the overall sector trend with greater volatility [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: For Shanghai Gold 2606, the previous day's closing price was 1121.50, the closing price yesterday was 1119.16, with a decline of 2.34 and a decline rate of - 0.21%. For Shanghai Gold 2604, the previous day's closing price was 1118.340, the closing price yesterday was 1116.200, with a decline of 2.140 and a decline rate of - 0.19%. For Shanghai Silver 2606, the previous day's closing price was 20301, the closing price yesterday was 20308, with an increase of 7 and an increase rate of 0.03%. For Shanghai Silver 2604, the previous day's closing price was 20380, the closing price yesterday was 20371, with a decline of 9 and a decline rate of - 0.04% [2]. - Positions and Volumes: The position volume of Shanghai Gold 2606 was 148093, and the trading volume was 71848. The position volume of Shanghai Gold 2604 was 90930, and the trading volume was 146932. The position volume of Shanghai Silver 2606 was 218466, and the trading volume was 550109. The position volume of Shanghai Silver 2604 was 73981, and the trading volume was 74236 [2]. - Spot Premiums: The spot premium of Shanghai Gold 2606 was - 3.68, and that of Shanghai Gold 2604 was - 0.72. The spot premium of Shanghai Silver 2606 was 22, and that of Shanghai Silver 2604 was - 41 [2]. Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D was 1114.99, the closing price yesterday was 1115.48, with an increase of 0.49 and an increase rate of 0.04%. The previous day's closing price of London Gold was 5003.82, the closing price yesterday was 5006.63, with an increase of 2.81 and an increase rate of 0.06%. The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 20077, the closing price yesterday was 20330, with an increase of 253 and an increase rate of 1.26%. The previous day's closing price of London Silver was 80.73, the closing price yesterday was 79.36, with a decline of 1.37 and a decline rate of - 1.70% [2]. - Price Differences: The current value of Shanghai Gold 2606 - Shanghai Gold 2604 was 2.96, and the previous value was 3.16. The current value of Shanghai Silver 2606 - Shanghai Silver 2604 was - 63.00, and the previous value was - 79.00. The current value of the gold/silver ratio (spot) was 54.87, and the previous value was 55.54. The current value of Shanghai Gold/London Gold was 1.01, and the previous value was 1.00. The current value of Shanghai Silver/London Silver was 1.16, and the previous value was 1.15 [2]. Inventory - Changes: The current value of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 105,315 kg, a decrease of 102 kg from the previous value. The current value of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 353,763 kg, an increase of 23055 kg from the previous value. The current value of the COMEX gold inventory was 32,236,075 troy ounces, a decrease of 160323 troy ounces from the previous value. The current value of the COMEX silver inventory was 337,892,693 troy ounces, a decrease of 1689570 troy ounces from the previous value [2]. Related Derivatives - ETF Positions and CFTC Net Positions: The current value of the SPDR Gold ETF position was 1,070 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from the previous value. The current value of the SLV Silver ETF position was 15,390 tons, an increase of 34 tons from the previous value. The current value of the CFTC speculator's net position in gold was 163,132, an increase of 2987 from the previous value. The current value of the CFTC speculator's net position in silver was 24,578, an increase of 1240 from the previous value [2]. Macro News - Fed Interest Rate Expectations: According to CME "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this week is 98.9%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 0%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point increase is 1.1%. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative cut by April is 3.1%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 95.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point increase is 1.1%. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative cut by June is 78.1% [3]. - Iranian Incidents: Iran has designated multiple replacement candidates for key national positions. Iran's President confirmed the death of Ali Larijani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu said Larijani and Basij militia commander Suleimani were killed in an Israeli air - strike [3][4]. - US - Related News: US President Trump criticized his allies, threatened to withdraw from NATO, and the US will relax sanctions on Venezuela during the Iran war to release more oil resources [5].