农业策略?报：纸浆增仓大跌，针叶弱势加速反馈

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives outlooks for each commodity: - Paper Pulp: Oscillation. Cost support and strong broadleaf pulp are positive factors, while abundant liquidity suppresses prices. The futures are expected to remain volatile [18]. - Oils and Fats: Oscillation. With high uncertainty in the Middle - East situation, high - running crude oil, and potential cost increases for vegetable oils, a strategy of buying at stage - low prices is recommended [6]. - Protein Meal: Oscillation. Market sentiment is weakening, and there is a need for technical adjustment after price increases. Geopolitical instability provides support at the bottom [7]. - Corn: Oscillation. In the short - term, there may be callback pressure, but in the medium - term, it is more likely to be a long - position allocation based on a tight annual balance sheet [10]. - Hogs: Oscillation with a downward bias. In the first half of the year, a short - selling hedging strategy is recommended. Prices are expected to bottom out and rise moderately in the fourth quarter [11]. - Natural Rubber: Oscillation. Fundamental variables are limited, and the market will maintain a volatile pattern [13]. - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillation with an upward bias. The market follows the sector sentiment. If crude oil prices continue to rise, the market will remain strong in the short - term [15]. - Cotton: Oscillation with an upward bias. A long - position allocation at low prices is recommended in the medium - to - long - term [15]. - Sugar: Oscillation. Although the global sugar market is in a supply - surplus situation in the 25/26 season, sugar prices may fluctuate with oil prices in the short - term [16]. - Double - Gum Paper: Oscillation. After the holiday, supply and demand are expected to increase, but the driving force is weak, and it will operate within a short - term range [20]. - Logs: Oscillation. The increase in foreign - market quotes drives up domestic spot prices. There is strong support at the bottom and obvious hedging pressure at the top, and it will operate within a range [22]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Paper Pulp: The price dropped significantly yesterday. There is no new negative news, but the fundamental pressure is significant. The port inventory of domestic softwood pulp is abundant, and downstream demand is weak. The "Golden March" peak season may end early. In the future, the fundamentals are expected to weaken further, but cost support limits the downward space. It is expected to maintain an interval - oscillation strategy in the short - term [18]. - Oils and Fats: The futures prices are highly sensitive to the Middle - East situation and crude oil prices. There are both positive and negative factors in the soybean, palm oil, and rapeseed oil markets. It is necessary to pay attention to the risks of crude oil decline and the expected difference in biodiesel policies [5]. - Protein Meal: Internationally, the expected increase in China's non - soybean agricultural product purchases from the US and the postponement of high - level talks have put pressure on US soybeans. Domestically, the decline in inventory and firm spot prices, along with geopolitical disturbances, have led to a narrowing of the decline in the futures price. In the short - term, there are both positive and negative factors, and the double - meal market will oscillate [7]. - Corn: The price is weakly operating. The increase in the arrival volume has led to a slight decline in prices. The supply pressure is limited, and the downstream inventory is low. It is necessary to follow the game between farmers' selling rhythm and downstream replenishment rhythm. In the short - term, there may be callback pressure, and in the medium - term, it is more likely to be a long - position allocation [9][10]. - Hogs: The supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is falling. In the short - term, the supply exceeds the demand, and the price is weak. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is still high. In the long - term, the supply is expected to decrease gradually at the end of the third quarter, and the price may rise moderately [10][11]. - Natural Rubber: The price is in a sideways - oscillation pattern. The Middle - East geopolitical situation has a negative impact on downstream tire orders. The market sentiment is weakening, and there is a need for adjustment. However, the high - running synthetic rubber provides support, and the market is easy to rise and difficult to fall [13]. - Synthetic Rubber: The BR market is operating at a high level. The Middle - East geopolitical situation has led to a shortage of butadiene supply, and the market is easy to rise and difficult to fall as long as the geopolitical situation remains tense [15]. - Cotton: The release of the sliding - scale tariff quota for cotton imports has led to a strong rebound in the outer market and an oscillatory adjustment in the inner market. In the long - term, both the outer and inner markets are expected to strengthen, and a long - position allocation at low prices is recommended [15]. - Sugar: In the short - term, sugar prices may fluctuate with oil prices. In the long - term, the global sugar market is in a supply - surplus situation, but high oil prices may reduce the sugar - making ratio in Brazil and tighten the sugar supply [16]. - Double - Gum Paper: Affected by the raw material end, the price is weakening. In March - April, the market is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand, and the price will rise. In May, the price may fall. It is recommended to operate within the 4000 - 4400 yuan/ton range [20]. - Logs: Affected by shipping costs and the US dollar exchange rate, the outer - market quotes have increased, driving up the domestic spot price. The market is oscillating strongly in the short - term. In the medium - term, the demand is not strong, and the market will be under pressure after the arrival of a large number of logs [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes and Views - Paper Pulp: The price of softwood pulp in Shandong has dropped. The fundamental pressure is significant, and it is expected to maintain an interval - oscillation strategy in the short - term [18]. - Oils and Fats: The futures prices are sensitive to the Middle - East situation and crude oil prices. There are positive and negative factors in different oil markets [5]. - Protein Meal: The international and domestic markets have different influencing factors, and the double - meal market will oscillate in the short - term [7]. - Corn: The price is weakly operating, and the supply and demand situation needs to be followed [9]. - Hogs: The supply is abundant, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is falling [10]. - Natural Rubber: The price is in a sideways - oscillation pattern, and the Middle - East geopolitical situation has a negative impact on downstream demand [13]. - Synthetic Rubber: The BR market is operating at a high level, and the supply of butadiene is in short supply due to the geopolitical situation [15]. - Cotton: The release of the sliding - scale tariff quota has affected the outer and inner markets, and a long - position allocation at low prices is recommended in the long - term [15]. - Sugar: In the short - term, sugar prices may fluctuate with oil prices, and the long - term supply is in surplus [16]. - Double - Gum Paper: Affected by the raw material end, the price is weakening, and the market is expected to rise first and then fall from March to May [20]. - Logs: Affected by shipping costs and the US dollar exchange rate, the outer - market quotes have increased, and the market is oscillating strongly in the short - term [21]. 3.2 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index on March 17, 2026, was 2591.86, a decrease of 0.61%. The commodity 20 index was 2926.66, a decrease of 0.58%. The industrial product index was 2565.21, a decrease of 0.51% [183]. - Agricultural Product Index: On March 17, 2026, the agricultural product index was 973.93. The daily decline was 0.72%, the decline in the past 5 days was 0.01%, the increase in the past month was 4.96%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was 4.38% [185].