白糖：原糖加力，震荡偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of sugar is 1, indicating a "slightly bullish" view. The range of trend strength is from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3]. 2. Core View - The sugar market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, with raw sugar prices showing an upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Price Data: The raw sugar price is 14.45 cents per pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.26. The mainstream spot price is 5440 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan year - on - year. The futures main contract price is 5406 yuan per ton, down 66 yuan year - on - year [1]. - Spread Data: The 59 spread is -30 yuan per ton, down 1 yuan year - on - year. The 91 spread is -133 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan year - on - year. The mainstream spot basis is 34 yuan per ton, up 56 yuan year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - High - frequency Information: Sugar is linked to crude oil through ethanol and has attracted continuous attention from funds. As of March 15, the sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season in India increased by 10% year - on - year. China imported 580,000 tons of sugar in December (+190,000 tons). As of the end of February, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar season was 5.65 million tons (-520,000 tons), and the sugar production rate was 12.28%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.01 percentage points. Attention should be paid to changes in China's import policies for syrup and premixed powder and the sales progress in the production areas [1]. - Domestic Market: CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season to be 11.7 million tons (previously 11.2 million tons), consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previously 15.9 million tons), and imports to be 5 million tons. As of the end of December, China had cumulatively imported 1.77 million tons of sugar in the 25/26 sugar season (+310,000 tons) [2]. - International Market: ISO expects a global sugar surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season (previously a shortage of 230,000 tons), and a global sugar shortage of 2.92 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season. As of February 1, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season decreased by 2.16 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 40.24 million tons (+340,000 tons), and the cumulative MIX was 50.74%, a year - on - year increase of 2.60 percentage points. As of March 15, the sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar season was 26.18 million tons (+2.46 million tons). As of March 11, the cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 25/26 sugar season was 9.79 million tons (+280,000 tons) [2].