有色金属日度策略-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information available in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall trend of non - ferrous metals is volatile. The geopolitical situation in Iran dominates the capital market sentiment, causing the US dollar to break through 100 and putting pressure on non - ferrous metals. The indirect impact on other non - ferrous metal varieties is gradually emerging, with an overall volatile and bearish trend. The stagflation expectation is increasing [12]. - The price of copper is expected to have its central price shift upwards. Although it is currently under pressure from the rising US dollar and inventory accumulation, the long - term inflation expectation boosted by oil prices and the approaching peak consumption season will support the price [3][15]. - Zinc is in a weak and volatile state. Geopolitical factors, supply increase, and weak demand recovery put pressure on the price [4][17]. - The aluminum industry chain shows a relatively strong trend. Concerns about overseas supply and the recovery of downstream demand support the price, but the impact of the Middle East situation on exports needs to be noted [5][17]. - Tin is in a sideways consolidation state. The fundamentals are relatively calm, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Lead is in a weak consolidation state. Although the supply is increasing, the downstream is still digesting inventory, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [8][18]. - Nickel and stainless steel are affected by geopolitical and policy factors. The cost support is strong, and the price is expected to fluctuate and rise [9][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - Macro Logic: The non - ferrous metal market is affected by the geopolitical situation in Iran. The US dollar breaks through 100, and the market is in a volatile and bearish state. The stagflation expectation is increasing. The Chinese government continues to implement an active fiscal policy, and the economic data shows mixed performance. The Australian central bank raises interest rates, and the inflation risk in the Middle East conflict is increasing. The short - term trend of non - ferrous metals is affected by geopolitical factors and risk sentiment [12][13]. - Variety Analysis - Copper: The price is under short - term pressure but is expected to rise in the long term. The inflation expectation and the approaching peak consumption season will support the price. It is recommended to buy on dips [3][15]. - Zinc: The price is in a weak and volatile state. Geopolitical factors, supply increase, and weak demand recovery put pressure on the price. It is recommended to be short - term bearish and buy on dips [4][17]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: The aluminum market is expected to be volatile and strong. The supply concern and the recovery of downstream demand support the price. It is recommended to wait and see or take a bullish approach [5][17]. - Tin: The price is in a sideways consolidation state. The fundamentals are relatively calm. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Lead: The price is in a weak consolidation state. The supply is increasing, but the downstream is still digesting inventory. It is recommended to buy on dips [8][18]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The price is affected by geopolitical and policy factors. The cost support is strong, and the price is expected to fluctuate and rise. It is recommended to buy on dips [9][18]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are provided, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [19]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metal sector is presented, including the price change, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position difference, net long - position change, net short - position change, and influencing factors of each variety [22]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each non - ferrous metal variety, relevant industry chain data charts are provided, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [25][26][29]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - For each non - ferrous metal variety, relevant arbitrage data charts are provided, such as the ratio of domestic and foreign prices, basis, and spread [49][51][53]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - For each non - ferrous metal variety, relevant option data charts are provided, such as historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and position ratio [66][69][72].