金融期货早班车-20260318

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term view of being bullish on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips as using stock index as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns [3]. - For treasury bond futures, the short - term trend is unclear, so it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium - to - long - term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct hedging on T and TL contracts on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Spot and Futures Market Performance - On March 17, the four major A - share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.85% to close at 4049.91 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.87% to close at 14039.73 points; the ChiNext Index fell 2.29% to close at 3280.06 points; the STAR 50 Index fell 2.23% to close at 1354.15 points. The market turnover was 22,246 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,153 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, non - bank finance (+1.28%), banks (+0.85%), and food and beverage (+0.55%) performed well; communication (-4.69%), electronics (-2.97%), and national defense and military industry (-2.57%) performed averagely. In terms of market strength, IH>IF>IC>IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 863/81/4,541 respectively [2]. - The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 327 billion, - 276 billion, 125 billion, and 478 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 245 billion, - 192 billion, + 170 billion, and + 267 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was 68.86, 66.03, 24.44, and 8.58 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 9.33%, - 8.95%, - 5.73%, and - 3.15% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 48%, 26%, 22%, and 27% respectively [3]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Spot and Futures Market Performance - On March 17, treasury bond futures rose slightly. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.03%, TF rose 0.04%, T rose 0.05%, and TL rose 0.13% [3]. - For the current active 2606 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year treasury bond futures was 250024.IB, with a yield change of - 2bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.057, and an IRR of 1.21%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year treasury bond futures was 250014.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.028, and an IRR of 1.32%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year treasury bond futures was 250025.IB, with a yield change of - 0.55bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.051, and an IRR of 1.23%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year treasury bond futures was 210014.IB, with a yield change of - 0.75bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.193, and an IRR of 0.81% [3]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 51 billion yuan into the market and withdrew 39.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 11.5 billion yuan [3]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that at the beginning of March, the business climate of various sectors declined slightly [10].