宁证期货今日早评-20260318

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides short - term and medium - term outlooks for various commodities, including crude oil, alumina, iron ore, etc. It takes into account factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and cost changes to predict the price trends of these commodities [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - API data shows that for the week ending March 13, 2026, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 656,000 barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 4.56 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.39 million barrels. The death of the Iranian official and the situation of oil tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz are key factors. Short - term trading should be cautious, and a long - position approach can be considered in the medium - term before significant improvement in the Strait's passage [1]. Alumina - Guinea, the world's largest bauxite producer, is discussing production control. Rising oil prices increase bauxite import costs, and some domestic alumina enterprises are reducing production. However, domestic alumina inventories are still increasing. It is expected to be in a short - term oscillatory and slightly upward trend [2]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports is 179.4732 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 524,900 tons. The daily handling volume is 3.3233 million tons, an increase of 53,500 tons. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the medium - term, it is expected to be in a weak oscillatory trend due to high inventory [4]. Steel (including Rebar) - On March 17, domestic steel prices mostly rose. High international oil prices drive up the prices of black - series raw materials, but the recovery of steel demand is slow. In the short - term, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate [4]. Silicon Iron - The operating rate of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises is 26.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.77%. The daily output is 13,780 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.17% (305 tons). There is a risk of a high - level correction in prices, and attention should be paid to cost adjustments and production resumption [5]. Live Pigs - On March 17, the average wholesale price of pork was 16.20 yuan/kg, a 0.1% increase from the previous day. Short - term prices are weak, but long - term downward space is limited. Near - month contracts are accelerating downward, and far - month contracts are oscillating upward [5]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 15, 2026 increased by 56.89% compared to the same period last month. Geopolitical conflicts and other factors are short - term influential factors. It is expected to have a high - level oscillation with strong support below [6]. Soybean Meal - As of March 17, domestic soybean meal prices showed different trends. The M05 contract tests the 3000 - yuan mark. Oil refinery inventories are rising, and there is a risk of price decline [7]. Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. Port and enterprise inventories are decreasing, and demand is rising. It is expected to have a short - term slight upward oscillation [7]. PX - PX closes at $1280.67/ton, a $6.34/ton increase. Due to geopolitical uncertainties and supply reduction expectations, but with weak terminal orders, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [8]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1259 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Production is at a high level, and inventories are decreasing. It is expected to have a short - term weak oscillation [8]. Synthetic Rubber - Asian butadiene prices are at a certain level, and the capacity utilization rate is decreasing. The production enterprise inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is increasing. It is expected to be in a short - term oscillation [9]. Copper - Asian scrap - copper markets are divided. China's scrap - copper supply is tight, and demand is weak. Macroeconomic factors also suppress copper prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [11]. Zinc - Spot markets in different regions show different performances. Supply is stable, while demand is weak, and inventories are high. Zinc prices are expected to have a short - term weak oscillation [11].