国新国证期货早报-20260318

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 17, 2026 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.85% to 4049.91, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.87% to 14039.73, and the ChiNext Index declined 2.29% to 3280.06. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 2.22 trillion yuan, a decrease of 115.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - CSI 300 Index: It closed at 4637.44, a decrease of 34.12 from the previous day [2] 2. Futures Market Analysis 2.1. Coal and Coke - Coke: The weighted coke index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1749.2, down 8.5. With the end of the Two Sessions, environmental protection warnings were lifted, and coke supply is expected to continue rising. Some steel mills' blast furnaces are gradually resuming production, and rigid demand has rebounded [2][4] - Coking Coal: The weighted coking coal index fluctuated within a range, closing at 1205.8 yuan, down 3.3. After the important meeting, some mines are resuming production, and supply has room for growth. Market sentiment has improved, and downstream coking enterprises are replenishing stocks, increasing trading activity. Some coal prices have risen. For example, the average transaction price of a certain type of coking coal in Shanxi increased by 44 yuan/ton [3][4] 2.2. Sugar - Zhengzhou Sugar: Affected by factors such as the decline in US sugar prices and the reduction in spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated lower on Tuesday. At night, it had a narrow - range oscillation and a slight decline [4] 2.3. Rubber - Shanghai Rubber: It had a stable trend with a narrow - range oscillation and a slight decline on Tuesday. Due to concerns about high oil prices affecting global economic growth, traders were cautious, and the rubber price oscillated lower at night. As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.42% [4][5] 2.4. Soybean Meal and Related - International Soybeans: On March 17, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1156.5 cents per bushel, up 0.11%. Strong oil prices supported soybean prices, and the US soybean export inspection volume increased by about 45% year - on - year. As of March 12, 2025/26 Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 61%, compared with 51% last week and 70% last year [5] - Domestic Soybean Meal: On March 17, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 3070 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. China's soybean imports from January - February decreased by 7.8% year - on - year, and the arrival volume was lower than expected. However, the impact on domestic soybean arrival volume may be limited due to the recovery of Brazilian soybean transportation [5] 2.5. Livestock - Live Pigs: On March 17, the main live pig contract LH2605 closed at 10,695 yuan/ton, down 1.06%. The supply side is relatively loose, with large pigs being released, increased scale - farm slaughter, and high frozen - product inventory. The demand side is in the off - season, and the support for pig prices is limited. However, there may be support from bottom - fishing and state reserve purchases after price drops [5] 2.6. Palm Oil - Palm Oil: On March 17, the palm oil futures had a high - level oscillation, with the price falling below 10,000 yuan. The main contract P2605 closed at 9954 yuan, down 0.56%. The estimated Malaysian palm oil exports from March 1 - 15 increased by 12.68% compared with the same period last month [5] 2.7. Copper - Shanghai Copper: The main copper contract closed at 99,340 yuan/ton. The spot price was 99,950 - 100,400 yuan/ton, with an average of 100,175 yuan/ton, up 1095 yuan. The demand from new energy, power grids, and electronics is strong, but the Fed's low probability of a March interest - rate cut and the US dollar and bond yields suppress the price increase [5] 2.8. Cotton - Zhengzhou Cotton: The main cotton contract closed at 15,385 yuan/ton at night on Tuesday. The cotton inventory decreased by 13 lots. The 2026 cotton tariff - rate quota for processing trade is 300,000 tons, with a 3 - month validity period starting from issuance [5][6] 2.9. Logs - Logs: The main log 2605 contract opened at 809.5, with a low of 806.5, a high of 817, and closed at 811.5, with an increase of 1337 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable [6] 2.10. Iron Ore - Iron Ore: On March 17, the main iron ore 2605 contract oscillated upward, up 1.81% to 816.5 yuan. The iron ore shipment increased, the arrival volume decreased, and port inventory continued to accumulate. However, there may be a recovery in demand due to steel mills' restocking needs [6] 2.11. Asphalt - Asphalt: On March 17, the main asphalt 2606 contract oscillated upward, up 1.73% to 4409 yuan. Domestic refineries reduced production due to cost - induced losses, and inventory is low, but downstream demand has not started yet, so the price may follow oil prices [6] 2.12. Steel - Steel: On March 17, rb2605 closed at 3148 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3313 yuan/ton. High oil prices pushed up raw material prices, strengthening the cost support for steel prices. However, the slow recovery of steel demand may lead to a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short term [6] 2.13. Alumina - Alumina: On March 17, ao2605 closed at 3073 yuan/ton. The supply - demand balance is okay. Rising costs and positive market sentiment may drive the price up. The spot market has good trading volume [6] 2.14. Aluminum - Shanghai Aluminum: On March 17, al2605 closed at 24,990 yuan/ton. Some overseas aluminum plants have production cuts. The domestic supply is stable, inventory is accumulating, and demand recovery is limited [6]