扩大内需战略专题研究（二）：扩大内需战略专题研究（一）：扩大内需战略专题研究（二）

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The 2026 Two Sessions consumption policy is expected to stimulate an additional consumption increment of 5.84-6.69 trillion yuan, potentially driving retail sales growth of 3.2-3.7 trillion yuan and pushing the retail sales year-on-year growth rate above 6.4% [3][13] - The expansion of domestic demand strategy is crucial for addressing internal and external constraints on economic development and establishing endogenous growth momentum [3][17] - The long-term strategic allocation value of the consumption sector is supported by the stable growth of the domestic consumption market, steady valuation of the consumption sector, and the long-term and continuous nature of the expansion of domestic demand policies [3][43] Summary by Sections 1. Latest Two Sessions Consumption Policy Interpretation - The 2026 policy emphasizes continuity and differences compared to previous years, with a focus on enhancing service consumption and introducing new financial collaborative funds [11][12] - The policy aims to directly stimulate consumption through various measures, including a 250 billion yuan special bond for old-for-new consumption and a new 100 billion yuan fund for promoting domestic demand [13][14] 2. Understanding the Elevation of Domestic Demand Strategy - The strategy is a systematic reboot aimed at reshaping growth models and policy tools, anchoring on the advantages of a super-large market and the resilience of industrial profits [17][19] 3. Core Logic of Expanding Domestic Demand Strategy - The shift from short-term total stimulus to medium- and long-term high-quality expansion is essential for creating a sustainable growth mechanism [47][51] - The new paradigm focuses on a positive cycle of income, employment, consumption, and investment, moving away from reliance on traditional real estate and infrastructure [48][51] 4. Implications for Investment in the Consumption Sector - The consumption sector is positioned as a stabilizing force in the new development pattern, with significant growth potential driven by structural upgrades and policy support [34][43] - The resilience of essential consumption categories provides a buffer against external risks, making the consumption sector a safe investment area [38][39] 5. Future Market Dynamics - The report suggests that the transformation of the investment paradigm will lead to a focus on structural growth rather than cyclical impulses, with key areas including high-end manufacturing, brand consumption, and green transformation [48][49]