生鲜软商品板块月度策略报告-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar: The global sugar surplus situation in the 2025/26 season has improved, and the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season is approaching. The supply - demand fundamentals in China are also improving. It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities after the Zhengzhou sugar main contract stabilizes [2]. - Pulp: The energy price decline has dragged down pulp. The pulp's own fundamentals are under slight pressure, but cost - side support may emerge. It is advisable to close short positions at low levels, wait and see, and try long - positions when the market stabilizes [2][5]. - Double - offset paper: The post - holiday demand is still recovering, and the cost support has weakened. The short - term price will fluctuate in a low - level range. It is recommended to hold short positions lightly and pay attention to the support level [6][8]. - Cotton: Geopolitical conflicts continue to affect the market. The global cotton supply in the 2025/26 season is expected to be loose, but the new - season supply - demand is expected to improve. The domestic cotton price is expected to move up. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract carefully [8]. - Apple: The supply side provides medium - term support, but the consumption side lacks continuous impetus. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is recommended to reduce or exit long positions at high prices [9]. - Red dates: The futures price is in a bottom - oscillating state. It is recommended to exit short positions below 9000 points in the 2605 contract. Long - position holders can buy protective put options, and cautious investors can hold a reverse spread strategy of short 2605 and long 2609 [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - Fresh fruit futures: For Apple 2605, reduce or exit long positions at high prices; for Red dates 2605, buy at low prices in the short - term [19]. - Soft commodity futures: For Sugar 2605, take a long - position operation; for Pulp 2605, take a short - position operation; for Double - offset paper 2605, operate within a range; for Cotton 2605, hold long positions carefully [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - Apple market: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples increased. As of March 12, 2026, the inventory in major apple - producing areas decreased. The spot price in Shandong and Shaanxi is stable, and the sales in the sales area are okay [20][21][22]. - Red dates market: As of March 5, the inventory of 36 sample physical warehouses decreased slightly, and the market trading atmosphere is stable [23]. - Sugar market: The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the amount of sugar waiting to be shipped increased. In the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, the number of operating sugar mills in India decreased, and the sugar production increased. Brazil's estimated sugar - cane planting area and output decreased. The short - selling sentiment in the ICE sugar No. 11 futures market weakened [25]. - Pulp market: After the Spring Festival, the price of South American BHK pulp increased. The price increase was driven by supply concerns, but end - users' resistance increased, and the domestic market transaction was weak [27]. - Double - offset paper market: The inventory days decreased, the de - stocking speed slowed down, and the start - up load rate increased slightly [28]. - Cotton market: India's clothing export volume decreased in February 2026. Egypt's cotton net signing and shipment volume decreased. Brazil's cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 379.5 million tons, with a decrease in planting area and an increase in consumption and export [29]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - Futures market: The closing prices of Apple 2605, Red dates 2605, Sugar 2605, Pulp 2605, and Cotton 2605 changed, with daily price changes of 0.54%, - 0.50%, - 1.21%, - 2.75%, and - 0.42% respectively [30]. - Spot market: The spot prices of Apple, Red dates, Sugar, Pulp, Double - offset paper, and Cotton changed, with different year - on - year and month - on - month changes [35]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no specific text description in the given content, but there are relevant figures such as Apple 5 - month basis, Red dates main contract basis, etc. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 spread is 1331, with a negative 24 change compared to the previous period, and it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. It is recommended to go long at low prices. - Red dates 5 - 9 spread is - 375, with no change compared to the previous period. It is recommended to wait and see. - Sugar 5 - 9 spread is - 30, with a negative 1 change compared to the previous period. It is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see. - Cotton 5 - 9 spread is - 75, with no change compared to the previous period. It is expected to be oscillating and weakening. It is recommended to go short at high prices [56]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation There are figures showing the top 20 rankings of long and short positions, trading volume, net long and net short changes of Apple, Red dates, Sugar, Pulp, and Cotton, but no specific text description. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple has 0 warehouse receipts, with no change compared to the previous period and the same period last year. - Red dates have 4027 warehouse receipts, with no change compared to the previous period and a decrease of 1900 compared to the same period last year. - Sugar has 16342 warehouse receipts, with no change compared to the previous period and a decrease of 12042 compared to the same period last year. - Pulp has 192068 warehouse receipts, an increase of 452 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 203453 compared to the same period last year. - Cotton has 12482 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 13 compared to the previous period and an increase of 3360 compared to the same period last year [88]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data There are figures showing option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility of Apple, Sugar, and Cotton, but no specific text description.