格林大华期货早盘提示：焦煤、焦炭-20260318

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke in the black sector is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The coking coal market showed an overall strong performance yesterday, and it closed higher in the night session. The lower support and the center of gravity are gradually moving up. After the Two Sessions, the steel mill's start - up rate may bottom out and rebound. The demand for coking coal and coke is at a phased low, and the expectation is gradually improving. On the other hand, the energy attribute of coking coal promotes the stabilization of the spot market price, and most of the auction transaction prices have increased. The high - level customs clearance of Mongolian coal still has a certain suppressing effect on the futures market, so it is considered to be oscillating with a bullish bias in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2605 closed at 1176.0, down 0.42% compared with the previous day's closing of the day session; the main coke contract J2605 closed at 1732.0, down 0.8% compared with the previous day's closing of the day session [1] Important Information - Iran's new Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei rejected the proposal of "easing tensions or achieving peace" with the United States at a foreign affairs meeting, and dismissed the proposal forwarded to the Iranian Foreign Ministry by an intermediary between the two countries. He also said that the United States and Israel must be defeated and pay compensation [1] - The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, it will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on seven aspects: supporting the construction of a strong domestic market; supporting the cultivation and growth of new driving forces; accelerating high - level scientific and technological self - reliance; increasing efforts to ensure and improve people's livelihood; promoting new - type urbanization and regional coordinated development; accelerating the comprehensive green transformation; and strengthening fiscal scientific management [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission will identify about 100 iconic scenario projects with leading and driving roles across the country, including creating clean energy corridors with multi - provincial linkages, building full - space unmanned systems, and promoting the construction of elderly care service scenarios in areas with a relatively high degree of population aging [1] - The National Energy Administration released data showing that from January to February, the cumulative electricity consumption of the whole society was 1654.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%, and the increase was 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] Market Logic - The coking coal showed an overall strong performance yesterday and closed higher in the night session. After the Two Sessions, the steel mill's start - up rate may bottom out and rebound. The demand for coking coal and coke is at a phased low, and the expectation is gradually improving. The energy attribute of coking coal promotes the stabilization of the spot market price, and most of the auction transaction prices have increased. The high - level customs clearance of Mongolian coal still has a certain suppressing effect on the futures market, so it is considered to be oscillating with a bullish bias in the short term [1] Trading Strategy - The main coking coal contract is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias between 1100 and 1230 [1]