中东供应风险持续积累，市场支撑仍偏强

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The risk of supply in the Middle East is continuously accumulating, and the market support remains relatively strong. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are tightening, and the market structure is operating strongly. There are potential drivers on both the supply and demand sides. If the Strait is blocked for too long, the contradiction will be more prominent after the inventory of fuel oil on land and in floating warehouses is consumed. The increase in refinery start - up rates in Russia may hedge the supply gap to some extent, but the substantial alleviation of the problem still requires the resumption of navigation in the Strait [1][2] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.4% at 4,771 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.09% at 5,641 yuan/ton. Due to the obstruction of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the damage to energy facilities in the Middle East, the fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are tightening. The situation remains tense, with the number of passing ships in the Strait of Hormuz remaining low, and the scope of attacks on energy facilities in the Middle East expanding. On the demand side, countries like Egypt and Pakistan may increase fuel oil procurement due to tight natural gas supply, and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East increases ship fuel consumption and shifts the bunker fueling demand to ports in the Asia - Pacific region [1] Potential Increment - The potential increment comes from Russia. After the refinery start - up rate in Russia recovers, the supply of refined oil products including fuel oil has room for growth, which may hedge the supply gap to some extent. However, the substantial alleviation of the problem requires the resumption of navigation in the Strait [2] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: In the short term, it is oscillating strongly with large market fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see. Low - sulfur fuel oil: In the short term, it is oscillating strongly with large market fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see. There are no strategies for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, options [3]