下游备货趋于谨慎，供应缩量仍是主旋律

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the propylene market cooled yesterday, but the main theme of geopolitical concerns over raw material supply and intensified supply - side contraction expectations continue to support olefin prices [2] - Currently, the supply of raw material propane is tight, PDH device profits are deeply in the red, and domestic PDH devices are undergoing concentrated maintenance. The supply of propylene is expected to tighten again. On the demand side, downstream buyers mainly conduct rigid restocking at low prices, and the restocking sentiment is becoming more cautious. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of propylene remains tight, and there is still support for prices before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene basis data includes the closing price of the propylene main contract at 8410 yuan/ton (-140), the East China spot price of propylene at 8240 yuan/ton (-110), the North China spot price at 8025 yuan/ton (+0), the East China basis at -170 yuan/ton (+30), and the Shandong basis at -385 yuan/ton (+140) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Propylene capacity utilization is 71% (-2%). The profit of PDH production is in a deep loss, and the PDH capacity utilization is expected to decline further due to concentrated maintenance and some devices reducing their loads [1][2] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - PP powder capacity utilization is 31% (+3.98%), with a production profit of -75 yuan/ton (-300); epoxy propane capacity utilization is 77% (-3%), with a production profit of 52 yuan/ton (+270); n - butanol capacity utilization is 85% (-2%), with a production profit of 1013 yuan/ton (-125); octanol capacity utilization is 91% (-4%), with a production profit of 514 yuan/ton (+0); acrylic acid capacity utilization is 78% (-2%), with a production profit of 4900 yuan/ton (+327); acrylonitrile capacity utilization is 74% (-1%), with a production profit of 41 yuan/ton (-55); phenol - acetone capacity utilization is 87% (-2%), with a production profit of -192 yuan/ton (-872) [1] 4. Propylene Inventory - The propylene factory inventory is 44260 tons (-380) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None [3]