中辉有色观点-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding, short - term focus on long - making opportunities [1] - Silver: Wait - and - see in the short term [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound under pressure [1] - Polysilicon: Low - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: Wide - range oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has deteriorated, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year is almost zero, and the US dollar has strengthened, putting short - term pressure on market sentiment. However, the long - term bullish logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and copper is still optimistic in the medium and long term. Other metals have different degrees of pressure or opportunity characteristics [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market performance: Gold and silver prices are under pressure. For example, SHFE gold dropped 3.11% week - on - week, and COMEX silver dropped 10.29% week - on - week [2]. - Core logic: The deterioration of the Middle East situation, the increase in the Australian central bank's interest rate, and the rise of the US dollar and US bond yields are the core suppression factors. But the four underlying logics supporting the long - term bull market of precious metals remain unchanged [2]. - Strategy recommendation: In the short term, gold's volatility increases and it is insensitive to geopolitical events. If oil prices remain high and stagflation risks rise, forcing the Fed to turn to easing, gold will regain strong upward momentum. It is advisable to make batch purchases at low prices. Gold has support around 1100, and silver around 21000 [2]. Copper - Market performance: Copper prices have fallen under pressure. For example, the closing price of SHFE copper main contract dropped 0.92% [3]. - Core logic: The global copper mine supply is continuously tight, and the copper concentrate processing fee is - 57.2 US dollars/ton. The start of the peak season, the spot turning to premium, and the downstream's active purchasing at low prices have led to a slight reduction in inventories at home and abroad. However, if high oil prices continue, the logic of the global monetary easing expectation may reverse, and risk assets will be under pressure [4]. - Strategy recommendation: In the short term, copper is under pressure to correct. Industrial buyers should make purchases as needed, and sellers should wait for the rebound to sell hedging against the upper pressure level. The medium - and long - term trend of copper is still optimistic. The short - term range of SHFE copper is [98000, 101000] yuan/ton, and that of LME copper is [12500, 13000] US dollars/ton [5]. Zinc - Market performance: Zinc prices are oscillating weakly. For example, the closing price of SHFE zinc main contract dropped 1.76% [7]. - Core logic: In 2026, the global zinc mine supply may shrink. Some domestic small and medium - sized smelters have reduced production, limiting the release of subsequent production capacity. The downstream start - up has recovered, and the inventory accumulation rate has slowed down [8]. - Strategy recommendation: In the short term, zinc has broken through the support level and is recommended to wait and see. In the medium and long term, it is advisable to try to go long at low prices on dips. The range of SHFE zinc is [23000, 24000] yuan/ton, and that of LME zinc is [3200, 3300] US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - Market performance: Aluminum prices are under pressure to rebound, and alumina is in a rebound trend [11]. - Core logic: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation continues in 2026. There are short - term supply disturbances in the Middle East, and new electrolytic aluminum projects in Indonesia are still ramping up production. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased, and the downstream processing enterprise start - up rate has rebounded. The alumina inventory is still high, and the over - supply pattern is difficult to fundamentally reverse [12]. - Strategy recommendation: It is recommended to go long on SHFE aluminum at low prices in the short term, paying attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [24000 - 26000] [13]. Nickel - Market performance: Nickel and stainless steel prices are under pressure to rebound [15]. - Core logic: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation continues in 2026. Although Indonesia has confirmed a reduction in nickel ore production quotas, the news of possible additional quotas weakens the expectation of tightened supply at the ore end. The domestic pure nickel inventory has increased, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased slightly, but the downstream recovery still needs further verification [16]. - Strategy recommendation: It is recommended to go long on nickel and stainless steel at low prices, paying attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [130000 - 150000] [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The main contract LC2605 opened slightly higher, rose and then fell, and the increase narrowed in the afternoon [19]. - Core logic: The supply and demand are still in a tight balance. The arrival of imports from Chile has not led to inventory accumulation. The downstream has entered the peak season, and the high - frequency micro - data is less important. The domestic lithium salt plants are steadily resuming production, and the overseas lithium ore policy is still uncertain. The downstream recovery is faster than the upstream, and there is still a replenishment expectation in the peak season and the window period of export rush. The total inventory has fallen below 100,000, and the upstream smelter inventory is low [20]. - Strategy recommendation: Wide - range oscillation in the range of [150000 - 158000] [21].