机构行为周度跟踪 20260315：机构行为的视角，10Y 国开利差何时能压下去

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market has shown some recovery this year, with the 10Y government bond yield decreasing from 1.8427% to 1.8143% (-2.84bp) and the 10Y government-backed bond yield falling from 1.9862% to 1.9646% (-2.16bp) [7] - The 10Y government-backed bond and government bond spread widened from 14.35bp to 15.03bp (+0.68bp), remaining at a historical high [7] - Institutional behavior indicates that the compression of the government-backed bond spread is constrained by large banks selling pressure, unstable support from smaller banks, and strong trading activity from funds [7] Group 2: Institutional Behavior - Large banks have net bought approximately 246.5 billion yuan in government bonds and net sold about 139.2 billion yuan in government-backed bonds, creating a cumulative preference gap of -385.8 billion yuan [10] - Smaller banks have net sold about 162.6 billion yuan in government bonds while net buying approximately 34.3 billion yuan in government-backed bonds, indicating a temporary support for the government-backed bond market [10] - Funds have shown a slight net sell of about 34 million yuan in 7-10Y government-backed bonds and a significant net sell of approximately 481 million yuan in 7-10Y government bonds, failing to create sustained allocation to long-term interest rate bonds [14] Group 3: Future Outlook - The ability of the 10Y government-backed bond spread to compress will depend on the supply strength and continuity of support from the government-backed bond market [18] - Historical spread percentiles have decreased significantly, indicating that the spread may enter a "repairable" range, but the 10Y spread remains sensitive to marginal forces [18] - If large banks' selling pressure on government-backed bonds decreases and smaller banks provide more consistent support, the 10Y government-backed bond spread may shift from "dull and repetitive" to a trend of compression [18]