金融期货早评-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global financial market's volatility is mainly driven by the geopolitical game in the Strait of Hormuz. The outcome of the US - Iran conflict will determine oil prices, reshape the global geopolitical pattern, and affect the US dollar hegemony. Short - term news and changes in the war situation cause high - frequency fluctuations in asset prices, and the risk of conflict escalation and supply - chain disruption remains high [2]. - Geopolitical conflicts have forced a shift in global monetary policies. The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates, and the Fed's March interest - rate meeting is in a dilemma. The market's expectation for the Fed's interest - rate cuts has been adjusted [2]. - In the domestic market, the active fiscal policy in 2026 provides support for economic recovery and market stability. The geopolitical game in the Strait of Hormuz is the core variable for global asset pricing, and investors should be cautious when dealing with cyclical products related to geopolitics [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: The market is waiting for the details of the FOMC meeting. Key information includes the growth of social electricity consumption, new major foreign - investment projects, the Fed's stance, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest - rate hike, and the energy and Iranian situations [1]. - Renminbi Exchange Rate: The geopolitical tension has eased marginally, and the US dollar index is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting. China's economic fundamentals are improving, and policy support lays a foundation for the moderate appreciation of the renminbi. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement, and import enterprises are advised to adopt a rolling foreign - exchange purchase strategy [3][4]. - Stock Index: The stock index adjusted yesterday. The adjustment is expected to continue due to sentiment and external factors, but the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and its impact on the subsequent interest - rate cut path [4][6]. - Treasury Bonds: The treasury bonds rebounded weakly. The market focus is on oil prices, and the short - term stability of the bond market needs to be observed. A grid trading strategy is recommended [7]. Commodities New Energy - Lithium Carbonate: In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely between 140,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton, and the volatility may gradually decrease. In the long term, the demand growth in downstream fields supports the long - term value of lithium carbonate [9][10]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The current industry is at the bottom of the production - capacity cycle. The photovoltaic industry is an important part of the energy - structure transformation. It is necessary to wait for the improvement of the supply - demand pattern and track the marginal optimization signals of the supply - demand structure [11][12]. Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum: The supply of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East is affected by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Short - term Shanghai aluminum prices are dominated by the war situation. Low - cost long positions or call options can be held, and positive arbitrage can be considered [14]. - Alumina: The domestic supply is affected by maintenance and new production capacity. Overseas, the price of alumina is affected by the Middle East situation and the policy expectation of Guinea. Selling deep - out - of - the - money put options is recommended [15]. - Copper: The copper price is under pressure, and trading should be cautious before the FOMC meeting. The previous strategy remains effective [15][18]. - Zinc: The zinc price is affected by inventory and macro factors, showing a weak and volatile trend in the short term and a relatively strong trend in the medium term [18]. - Nickel - Stainless Steel: The nickel - stainless steel market shows an intraday shock. The nickel market is affected by macro factors and Indonesian policies. The stainless - steel market has inventory reduction and consumption recovery, but the spot trading is not active [19][21]. - Tin: The tin price is affected by the Iranian situation and macro factors, showing a weak and volatile trend [20][21]. - Lead: The lead price is expected to fluctuate and gradually stop falling under the influence of inventory pressure and cost support [22]. Oils and Fats, and Feeds - Oilseeds: The Brazilian shipment affects the soybean and soybean - meal market. The short - term domestic soybean - meal price is supported, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The rapeseed - meal has regained cost - effectiveness, and a positive spread arbitrage can be tried [23][24]. - Oils: The oil market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The international and domestic supply - demand situations are different. The market follows the trend of crude oil and is affected by bio - fuel policies. Attention should be paid to the Iranian situation [24][25]. Energy and Oil and Gas - SC: The geopolitical situation dominates the pricing of oil. The oil price shows a volatile state, and risk control should be strengthened [26][27]. - Fuel Oil: The fuel - oil market is supported by the Middle East conflict and supply tightening, and the low - sulfur fuel - oil has a tight supply situation [27][28]. - Asphalt: The asphalt price is strong. The supply is affected by raw - material shortages, and the demand is not strong. Attention should be paid to position control and hedging strategies [28][29]. Precious Metals - Platinum and Palladium: The platinum and palladium market is affected by the Middle East conflict, tariff policies, and supply disturbances. In the long term, the bull - market foundation remains, but short - term adjustments may occur. Attention should be paid to position control [30][31]. - Gold and Silver: The gold and silver market is affected by the Middle East conflict, inflation concerns, and the Fed's interest - rate expectations. It is recommended to be bullish on precious metals in the long term and pay attention to support levels [32][34]. Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The pulp price is under pressure due to the decline in spot prices and weak demand. The offset - paper futures show a range - bound trend [36][37]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are supported by the cost due to the Middle East conflict. They are expected to be strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to risks [37][38]. - LPG: The LPG market has both positive and negative factors, and it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [38][40]. - Methanol: The methanol market is affected by the US - Iran situation. The price fluctuates greatly, and a positive spread arbitrage can be considered for the 05 - 09 contracts [41][42]. - PP and Propylene: The PP and propylene markets are expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz [45]. - Plastics: The plastic market is affected by supply reduction and demand feedback. The near - month support is strong, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation [46][47]. - Rubber: The rubber market is affected by geopolitical factors. The synthetic rubber may maintain a strong and wide - range shock, and the natural rubber is expected to stabilize in the medium - long term [50][51][52]. - Urea: The US - Iran war has a significant impact on the urea market, driving up the international and domestic prices. It is expected to trigger a price increase [53][54]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The soda - ash supply is under pressure, and the glass is restricted by supply expectations and inventory. Both are affected by the macro and other factors [55][56]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are supported by the cost of furnace materials, but the high inventory of hot - rolled coil limits the upside. The short - term price may rebound, but the height is limited [56][57]. - Iron Ore: The iron - ore price is affected by negotiation events and supply - demand factors. The short - term support is strong, but the long - term supply exceeds demand [57][59]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking - coal and coke prices are supported by overseas energy price increases, but the oversupply problem restricts the price increase [59][61]. - Ferroalloys: The ferroalloys are supported by cost, but the weak terminal demand and high inventory of steel products limit the upward space [61][62]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Pigs: The pig - futures price has fallen below the previous low. The secondary - fattening situation varies by region, and selling call options on the main contract is recommended [63]. - Cotton: The cotton price is supported by supply - demand expectations. The issuance of import quotas may narrow the domestic - foreign price difference, and the price is expected to be strong [65][66]. - Sugar: The sugar - futures price is affected by the Middle East situation and the slow sugar - mill crushing progress in Guangxi. The short - term oil price may fluctuate [66][68]. - Eggs: The egg - futures price has fallen. The supply is relatively abundant, but the demand is recovering. Selling call options on the main contract is recommended [69][70]. - Apples: The apple - futures price is strong, driven by fundamentals and delivery logic. The 05 contract is supported in the short term [76]. - Jujubes: The jujube price is stable. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price may bottom out in a low - level shock [77]. - Logs: The log - futures price is neutral to slightly bullish. The inventory decline reduces the pressure on the futures price, and the import cost provides support. A wait - and - see or light - long strategy is recommended [77][78][79].