中东局势仍动荡，供应收缩仍为主线

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment of the olefin sector cooled down yesterday, but the main line of supply contraction still runs through the chemical market. The ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, especially the Iran situation, has led to an upward trend in international oil prices, providing strong support for chemical products. The polyolefin market is mainly affected by concerns about raw material supply due to geopolitical factors and the expectation of supply contraction, which supports olefin prices [3]. - For PE, the supply is tightening as domestic refineries increase maintenance or reduce production, and the arrival of imported resources is expected to be weak. On the demand side, the overall downstream start - up has rebounded, but the increase in raw material costs has put pressure on the profitability of agricultural films, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The LLDPE basis has dropped significantly [3]. - For PP, the supply contraction is more obvious, with more upstream production enterprises reducing production preventively, and the maintenance loss in March - April is expected to continue to rise. On the demand side, the downstream start - up is gradually recovering, but due to price fluctuations and cost pressure, the downstream procurement is cautious, and the PP basis is weak [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis and Inter - period Structure - L主力合约收盘价为8496元/吨（-181），PP主力合约收盘价为8671元/吨（-186），LL华北现货为8300元/吨（-100），LL华东现货为8350元/吨（-200），PP华东现货为8600元/吨（-200），LL华北基差为-196元/吨（+81），LL华东基差为-146元/吨（-19），PP华东基差为-71元/吨（-14） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为82.4%（-4.5%），PP开工率为70.1%（-4.4%） [1] - PE油制生产利润为-626.6元/吨（+335.4），PP油制生产利润为-616.6元/吨（+335.4），PDH制PP生产利润为-1364.0元/吨（+111.4） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Not provided in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为-607.7元/吨（+114.2），PP进口利润为-1104.6元/吨（+161.2），PP出口利润为82.0美元/吨（-21.1） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为26.8%（+8.0%），PE下游包装膜开工率为43.4%（+3.1%），PP下游塑编开工率为40.5%（+2.9%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.3%（+1.7%） [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not provided in the content Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging [4] - Inter - period: Go long on the spread of L05 - 09 and PP05 - 09 when the spread is low [4] - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [4]