信用周报20260317：曲线继续陡峭化-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to low volatility and high returns, institutions still favor 3 - 4 - year general credit bonds. With the compression of the 4Y - 3Y spread and the expansion of the 3Y - 2Y spread, the 3Y - 2Y interval can be the key focus area in the future [4][15]. - Under the influence of risk - aversion sentiment and inflation concerns, institutions may remain cautious about long - term bonds in the short term, while short - term bonds have greater certainty. The short - term yield is at a historical low, with limited room for further significant decline. The medium - short - term term spread is at about 40% - 60% quantile, and the 3 - year credit spread quantile is relatively high, so there may still be room for further compression in the 2 - 3 - year period [3][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Secondary Market: Curve Steepening and a Significant Decline in Urban Investment Bond Transaction Volume 3.1.1 Market Trends: Divergent Movements of Short - and Long - Term and Curve Steepening - Secondary Capital Bonds: Last week (from March 9 to March 13, 2026), the short - term yield of bank secondary capital bonds decreased, while the long - term yield increased slightly. The 1 - 3 - year yields decreased by 3 - 4bp, and the 10 - year yield increased by nearly 4bp. The short - term spread compressed, and the long - term spread widened. The curve showed obvious steepening in the medium - long term, with the 4Y - 3Y, 5Y - 4Y, and 10Y - 7Y term spreads increasing by 2.67bp, 2.08bp, and 2.82bp respectively [10]. - Perpetual Bonds: The 1 - 3 - year yields decreased by 2 - 3bp, the 4 - 7 - year yields were basically flat, and the 10 - year yield increased by 3.2bp. The short - term spread of perpetual bonds decreased slightly, and the medium - long - term credit spread widened. The overall change was similar to that of secondary capital bonds, but the local steepening was more obvious, especially the 4Y - 3Y spread, which increased by 3.04bp, and the historical quantile increased by 16.63bp [12]. - General Credit Bonds: The short - term yield decreased slightly, and the long - term yield increased slightly. The 1 - 4 - year yields decreased by 0.5 - 1.8bp, the 5 - year yield was flat, and the 7 - and 10 - year yields increased by about 0.4bp and 1.3bp respectively. The credit spreads of all terms increased, and the curve showed obvious local steepening [13]. - Urban Investment Bonds: The short - and medium - term yields decreased, and the long - term yield increased slightly. The 1 - year yield decreased by 2.73bp, the 3 - 4 - year yields decreased by about 1.6bp, and the 10 - year yield increased by 1.5bp. The credit spreads of all terms except the 1 - year increased, and the curve showed a local steepening trend [14][15]. 3.1.2 Transaction Situation: Slight Increase in the Transaction Volume of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds and a Significant Decrease in the Transaction Volume of Urban Investment Bonds - Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds: The transaction volume of tier 2 and perpetual bonds increased slightly by 1.5 billion yuan last week. For secondary capital bonds, the transaction volume of 4 - 5 - year and 7 - 10 - year bonds increased significantly, while that of 1 - 2 - year, 3 - 4 - year, and 5 - 7 - year bonds decreased. For perpetual bonds, the transaction volume of bonds with a term of less than 1 year, 1 - 2 years, and 2 - 3 years increased [16]. - Urban Investment Bonds: The transaction volume of general credit bonds last week was 504.7 billion yuan, a decrease of more than 230 billion yuan compared with the previous week. The transaction volume of industrial bonds changed little, while that of urban investment bonds decreased significantly, and the transaction volume of quasi - urban investment bonds changed little overall [18]. 3.2 Primary Issuance: Continued Increase in the Issuance of Science and Technology Innovation Bonds and a Year - on - Year Decrease in Urban Investment Bonds - General Credit Bonds: The total issuance last week exceeded 330 billion yuan, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year. The issuance of industrial bonds and quasi - urban investment bonds increased significantly month - on - month, while the issuance scale of urban investment bonds changed little. Year - on - year, the issuance of industrial bonds increased by 57 billion yuan, with an increase of more than 70%, contributing most of the increase, while the issuance of urban investment bonds decreased by 26 billion yuan [23]. - Financial Bonds: The total issuance of financial bonds last week was 72.35 billion yuan, most of which were securities company bonds. Since 2026, the issuance of tier 2 and perpetual bonds has been very limited [26][28]. - Science and Technology Innovation Bonds: The issuance this week was about 52 billion yuan, an increase of 19.2 billion yuan month - on - month and 41.7 billion yuan year - on - year, maintaining a good momentum [29].