供应恢复需求仍弱，硅价预计维持震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. The supply side is expected to gradually release after a significant contraction since the Spring Festival, while the demand side for polysilicon remains sluggish. In the medium to long term, there is obvious price support, with an overall pattern of weak supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the resumption plans of large factories and changes in capital sentiment. The upside potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory clearance progress, while the downside space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly. The continuous weakness of industrial silicon prices makes the cost support for polysilicon weak. The demand expectation brought by the "rush to export" phenomenon before April has not been realized, coupled with high inventory, making it difficult to transmit demand in the industrial chain. After the Spring Festival, silicon wafer enterprises have resumed work, but the inventory pressure still exists. The recent Middle East conflict has cooled the global risk preference sentiment, which may intensify the selling pressure on the market. In the short term, attention should be paid to the post - festival supply and demand recovery situation, and in the medium to long term, attention should be paid to the silver price trend and inventory clearance progress [7]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - Market Trading Data: On March 17, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8655 yuan/ton and closed at 8560 yuan/ton, with a change of -150 yuan/ton (-1.72%) compared with the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the position of the 2605 main contract was 240719 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on March 16, 2026, was 21976 lots, with no change from the previous day [1]. - Supply Side: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9100 - 9300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9700 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8500 - 8700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8500 - 8700 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, the Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained the same, and the price of 97 silicon was stable. The social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on March 12 was 55.2 tons, a decrease of 0.18% compared with the previous week. The operating rate in Xinjiang exceeded 50%, and the supply side gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, but the operating rate in the Southwest remained low during the dry season [1]. - Cost Side: Recently, the prices of petroleum coke and Xinjiang electricity have increased, providing solid cost support [2]. - Consumption Side: According to SMM statistics, the quotation of silicone DMC was 13800 - 14300 yuan/ton. After the Spring Festival, the demand for downstream polysilicon, silicone, and aluminum alloy all decreased to varying degrees, and most of the post - festival inquiries were tentative [1]. Polysilicon - Market Trading Data: On March 17, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures oscillated and declined, opening at 42010 yuan/ton and closing at 41670 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of -0.9% compared with the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 34098 lots (34647 lots on the previous trading day), and the trading volume on the day was 8268 lots [3]. - Supply and Demand Situation: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 42.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg (-0.50 yuan/kg), and the price of N - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 45.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, while the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 35.70, with a month - on - month change of 2.50%, the silicon wafer inventory was 28.35GW, with a month - on - month change of -2.28%, the weekly output of polysilicon was 19000.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of 1.06%, and the output of silicon wafers was 11.98GW, with a month - on - month change of 8.12%. In March, some large factories had plans to start work one after another. Last week, the first - stage 25,000 - ton production capacity of the new 80,000 - ton granular silicon project of Tianhong Ruike was ignited. The supply contraction situation will end, and the output is expected to increase compared with February, while the demand side has not improved significantly and is expected to remain sluggish. The pattern of oversupply will continue. On that day, the polysilicon price oscillated widely, the overall trading volume was small, and the market sentiment was still pessimistic [3][6]. Silicon Wafers - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.03 yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers was 1.33 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.13 yuan/piece [4]. Battery Cells - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W; the price of PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 yuan/W; the price of Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.42 yuan/W; the price of Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.41 yuan/W (-0.01 yuan/W); the price of Topcon 210RN battery cells was 0.42 yuan/W. The price of HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 yuan/W [6]. Components - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm components was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N - type 182mm components was 0.74 - 0.76 yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N - type 210mm components was 0.75 - 0.78 yuan/W [6]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range - bound operation. - Cross - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [3]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range - bound operation, and the main contract is expected to maintain oscillation in the short term. - Cross - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [7]. Factors to Watch Industrial Silicon - Northwest production resumption and Southwest production suspension [5]. - Changes in polysilicon enterprise operation [5]. - Policy disturbances [5]. - Macroeconomic and capital sentiment [5]. - Silicone enterprise operation [5]. Polysilicon - US tariff adjustment [8]. - The impact of futures listing on the spot market [8]. - The impact of capital sentiment [8]. - Policy disturbances [8]. - The impact of the Middle East war on overseas photovoltaic demand [8].